Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series (Updated: Aug. 21, 2026): Will the official episode submissions matter in a category this stacked, especially with performers from the same series?

Taylor Dearden, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) | “5:00 P.M.”

Four of the seven slots in this category belong to “The Pitt,” and two of them are the same episode. First-time nominee Dearden’s Mel King has been the season’s breakout, but the math may not be her friend.

Fiona Dourif, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) | “5:00 P.M.”

The other half that hour, and also a first-time nominee. Dourif has spent years in genre television being the most committed person on screen. There could be some industry stalwarts who end up checking her name off on the ballot.

Allison Janney, “The Diplomat” (Netflix) | “Amagansett”

Already one of the most awarded performers in history, she submitted the same episode as her nominated co-star Bradley Whitford, which means the Academy gets a “West Wing” reunion. Grace Penn is the best thing to happen to this show since it started.

Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) | “1:00 P.M.”

The defending winner in this category, Dana Evans, is the show’s moral spine. Repeating as the winner is hard, but repeating against three castmates is even harder. Nonetheless, LaNasa is still the only one of the four with a trophy already.

Sepideh Moafi, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) | “9:00 P.M.”

Moafi has been building toward this across several prestige series without a nomination to show for it. The first Persian nominee in the category’s history could be in the best position to upset her former co-star who won.

Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise” (Hulu) | “Exodus”

A winner in 2021 for “Mare of Easttown,” Nicholson has made one of the great late-career runs. In a category with four “Pitt” nominees splitting the vote, that is a structural advantage for someone like Nicholson, who won last year for “Hacks.”

Karolina Wydra, “Pluribus” (Apple TV) | “Charm Offensive”

A first-time nominee from the year’s biggest new drama, Wydra is the performance people came out of the season talking about after Rhea Seehorn. Newcomers rarely win this, but newcomers on a Vince Gilligan show occasionally do.

The Emmy Awards timeline begins with nomination-round voting from June 11-22, with nominations announced on July 8. The final voting runs from Aug. 17-26, leading into the Creative Arts Awards and Governors Gala on Sept. 5–6, culminating with the Emmy Awards ceremony on Sept. 14 on NBC.