Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series (Updated: Aug. 21, 2026): Here are the episode selections for our dramatic and talented women, some eyeing for historic wins, while others are overdue for some love.

Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age” (HBO Max) | “My Mind Is Made Up”

Nominations for “Fargo,” “The White Lotus” and now again for the Julian Fellowes period drama, but still no trophy. Coon submits the season finale, which also anchors the show’s series submission. Bertha Russell is the engine of a series that would collapse without her. The Television Academy keeps noticing, then keeps moving on.

Chase Infiniti, “The Testaments” (Hulu) | “Secateurs”

A first-time nominee whose ascent has been remarkably swift following last year’s best picture winner, “One Battle After Another.” Infiniti moves from film into a dystopian franchise that has earned nominations in this category for much of the past decade. By submitting the finale, she gets to showcase the full breadth of the performance. But as the show’s lone acting nominee, the nomination itself may be the reward.

Keri Russell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix) | “Schrodinger’s Wife”

Previously nominated for “The Americans,” Russell earns her third consecutive nomination for the Netflix political thriller. Coming off her SAG Award win, she submits the same episode as co-star Rufus Sewell, allowing voters to reward them as a package deal. As Kate Wyler, Russell keeps giving the Television Academy reasons to vote for her. Perhaps now it’s time.

Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus” (Apple TV) | “We Is Us”

After two long-overdue nominations for “Better Call Saul,” Seehorn now leads an 18-nomination Vince Gilligan sci-fi drama built entirely around her. She submits the series premiere, introducing audiences to Carol Sturka exactly as intended. It’s hers to lose.

Zendaya, “Euphoria” (HBO Max) | “In God We Trust”

Already a two-time winner for this role, in 2020 and 2022, Zendaya submits the series finale, a heartbreaking showcase for Rue. Even though the HBO Max teen drama returned after a long absence to mixed reviews, Zendaya has never lost in this category. The challenge is arguing she deserves one more, especially with “Pluribus” surging.

The Emmy Awards timeline begins with nomination-round voting from June 11-22, with nominations announced on July 8. The final voting runs from Aug. 17-26, leading into the Creative Arts Awards and Governors Gala on Sept. 5–6, culminating with the Emmy Awards ceremony on Sept. 14 on NBC.