Дата публикации: 14-08-2026 10:36:23

South Korea’s terms of trade improved last month by the widest margin since data collection began, as rising semiconductor prices and falling international oil prices converged simultaneously. The Bank of Korea assessed that both export prices and volumes increased in tandem, indicating strengthened

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South Korea’s export prices climbed to their highest level in more than 28 years in July, driven by a surge in semiconductor prices and stronger export volumes, according to the Bank of Korea.

South Korea’s terms of trade improved last month by the widest margin since data collection began, as rising semiconductor prices and falling international oil prices converged simultaneously. The Bank of Korea assessed that both export prices and volumes increased in tandem, indicating strengthened export competitiveness and improved external purchasing power among domestic companies.

According to the “July 2026 Export and Import Price Index and Trade Index” released by the Bank of Korea on Aug. 14, the net barter terms of trade index rose 24.7% from the same month a year earlier. This means the volume of imports purchasable with one unit of export proceeds expanded by that margin. The improvement was primarily driven by export prices — adjusted for a time lag — which climbed 36.8% year-on-year, while import prices rose just 9.7% over the same period.

Export prices traced a steep upward curve, led by semiconductors. The won-denominated export price index for July jumped 49.1% from the same month a year earlier, reaching the highest level since March 1998, when it stood at 57.1%, marking a record not seen in 28 years and 4 months. Export prices for computers, electronic and optical equipment surged 122.3%, with individual components posting even sharper gains: DRAM prices spiked 270.3% and flash memory prices soared 248.1%, both pulling the overall index higher.

Import prices, by contrast, remained stable under the combined influence of lower international oil prices and a weaker won-dollar exchange rate. The won-denominated import price index for July fell 1.0% from the prior month, extending a decline for the second consecutive month. The monthly average Dubai crude oil price dropped 3.4% from the previous month to $76.75 per barrel, while the won-dollar exchange rate also slipped 2.0% from the prior month to 1,497.43 won, factors identified as the primary drivers of the decline.

Positive readings also emerged across the trade indices. The export volume index for July rose 20.0% year-on-year, centered on computers, electronic and optical equipment as well as transportation equipment, sustaining nine consecutive months of growth. The export value index also surged 64.2%. Accordingly, the income terms of trade index — which incorporates both net barter terms of trade and export volumes to represent the total volume of imports purchasable with total export receipts — rose 49.7% as well.

Lee Heung-hu, head of the Price Statistics Team at the Bank of Korea’s Economic Statistics Department 1, said, “We are seeing simultaneous increases in both the prices and volumes of export items,” and explained that “this suggests that our companies’ export competitiveness has strengthened, and that external purchasing power continues to improve.” However, import prices remained 18.7% higher than the same month a year earlier on a year-on-year basis, leaving open the possibility that they could exert upward pressure on consumer prices with a time lag.

The outlook is accompanied by competing uncertainties. On conditions in August, Lee added, “While the exchange rate has fallen from the previous month since the start of this month, international oil prices have risen amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, meaning both upward and downward factors are at play for import prices,” and noted that “it will be necessary to monitor the situation a little longer before the direction of import prices becomes clear.”

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