Business 27 January 2026, 10:26am

According to the sector analysis published by Moody's Ratings in London on Monday, the binding letter of intent between Mol Group and Gazprom Neft regarding the purchase of the Russian company's 56.15% stake in NIS (Naftna Industrija Srbije) has

a positive effect on Serbia's debt rating.

Mol announced the signing of the letter of intent for the acquisition transaction last week, stating that the parties aim to sign the contract by 31 March 2026. According to the letter of intent, the deal includes not only the Pančevo oil refinery but also NIS's retail network and its hydrocarbon exploration and production portfolio.

As background to the transaction, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions against NIS in October last year as part of measures targeting the Russian energy sector. As a result of these restrictions, oil shipments through Croatia and operations at the Pančevo refinery, Serbia's only oil processing plant, were halted. However, on 31 December, OFAC issued a special licence allowing NIS to continue refinery processing, import crude oil, and conduct certain financial transactions, while also providing an opportunity for the company to negotiate the sale of Russian-owned assets until 24 March 2026.

According to Moody's Ratings' assessment on Monday, the letter of intent represents significant progress towards resolving the ownership issue cited by the United States as the reason for the sanctions. The international credit rating agency's sector analysis released in London states that

this development also reduces uncertainties surrounding fuel supply in Serbia, which has a positive impact on Serbia's debt quality assessment.

Moody's stated that the signing of the letter of intent confirms its earlier expectation that Serbia has the institutional capacity and geopolitical flexibility to manage external pressures and prevent potential widespread macroeconomic disruption.

The credit rating agency also highlights that NIS operates Serbia's only oil refinery, maintains an extensive retail network across the country with more than 300 filling stations, and provides over 80 percent of the country's petrol and diesel supply. According to Moody's, this means that a potential prolonged supply disruption could have significant economic implications. However, Moody's Ratings also emphasises that Serbia had been preparing for US sanctions for some time and was able to ensure market supply using previously acquired reserves, avoiding widespread fuel shortages.

According to the credit rating agency, these developments indicate the Serbian authorities' ability to

create a carefully crafted geopolitical balance between Russian and Western economies.

Cover photo: Portfolio