RBI policy-led India bond rally continues; Friday's debt sale in focus

Synopsis

Indian government bonds saw a slight increase early Thursday, continuing Wednesday's strong rally. The Reserve Bank of India's dovish stance and falling oil prices supported this upward movement. Investors remain cautious, however, as New Delhi prepares for a significant bond auction on Friday. This auction will test market demand and the sustainability of the recent bond price gains.

Indian government bonds edged higher early on Thursday, building on Wednesday's sharp rally after the central bank's dovish hold, though investors remained cautious ahead of Friday's auction.

The benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yield was at 6.7588% at 11:10 a.m. IST, from 6.7722% at Wednesday's close. It fell ‌nearly 5 ⁠basis points ⁠on Wednesday to its lowest level in three weeks.

Bond yields move inversely to ​prices.

New Delhi will sell 320 billion rupees ($3.36 billion) of bonds on Friday, which includes ​the liquid five-year note.

Friday's auction will test whether demand can sustain the rally sparked by the Reserve Bank of India's more dovish-than-expected policy stance and a fall in oil prices that eased ⁠inflation concerns.

The ‌RBI kept its repo rate unchanged on Wednesday but lowered its average inflation forecast for the current financial year to ⁠5.0% from 5.1%. It also cut its core inflation forecast to 4.3% from 4.7%.

Oil prices hovered around $79 ​a barrel in Asian trade and have averaged $82-$83 since June, well below the RBI's $95-a-barrel assumption in its June policy review.

Foreign banks bought 91 billion rupees of bonds on Wednesday, while state-run banks sold a similar amount, likely locking in profits after the rally, traders said.

"We ‌expect market to stabilize around current levels and trade with positive bias with 10-year bond trading between 6.65% - ​6.85% range. Short-term ​yields are likely ⁠to go down further from current levels," said Amit Somani, deputy fixed income head at Tata Asset Management

RATES

India's overnight index swap rates extend drop ​as oil and US yields inch lower. The 10-year U.S. yield was steady at 4.61% in Asian trade.

The one-year swap rate fell 2.25 bps to 5.74%, the two-year rate fell 1.75 bps to 5.9250%, and the five-year rate declined 2.25 bps to 6.23%.

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