Indian bond bias stays positive, debt auction demand in focus

Synopsis

Indian government bonds remained firm in early trade on Friday. The benchmark 10-year bond yield held above the key 6.75% level. Investors awaited a weekly debt auction for fresh market cues. Lower oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields offered some support. India's overnight index swap rates dipped without strong trends.

Indian government bonds remained firm in early trade on Friday, although the benchmark 10-year bond yield held above the key 6.75% level as investors looked to a weekly debt auction for fresh cues.

The yield on the benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond was at 6.7511% as ‌of 10:00 ⁠a.m. ⁠IST, after closing at 6.7582% on Thursday. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

New ​Delhi will raise 320 billion rupees ($3.35 billion) through a bond sale later in the ​day, including two new securities that will mature in three years and seven years.

"Market has been taken over by the bulls, ​as we witnessed yesterday, but the major question ⁠still remains, ‌are there enough buyers for the 10-year bond yield ​to break ​past 6.75% mark," a trader said.

Oil prices eased in ⁠the previous session and hovered around those levels in Asian trade on Friday as traders weighed growing signs of softer global demand against a sharp increase in U.S. crude stockpiles.

Brent crude slipped below $87 a barrel after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that commercial crude inventories recorded their largest weekly rise since January 2023.

The decline in oil prices is positive for India, ‌the world's third-largest crude oil importer, as lower import costs can help ease inflationary pressures and improve the fiscal outlook.

Meanwhile, U.S. ​Treasury yields also ⁠edged lower, with the benchmark 10-year yield hovering near 4.65%, after July producer-price data suggested inflationary pressures at the wholesale level remained contained, prompting investors ​to scale back rate-hike expectations in September.

India's overnight index swap rates dipped, with no major volumes to show any strong trend.

On Thursday, the one-year rate was at 6.24%, while the two-year rate was at 5.92%, while the liquid five-year rate was at 6.24%.

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