MOSCOW, September 24. /TASS/. Setting the base oil price in the budget at $50 per barrel means that the Russian Ministry of Finance is already factoring an open Strait of Hormuz scenario into its forecast, Igor Yushkov, an expert from the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund, told TASS.

"The Ministry of Finance has taken a very conservative approach to assessing future oil and gas revenues, making it a bet on stability," the expert noted. "Essentially, the Ministry of Finance is now factoring in a Strait of Hormuz opening scenario to ensure it does not depend on this factor," he said.

The global oil market was highly volatile in 2026, Yushkov said. In January, the price of Russian Urals crude stood at $41 per barrel, but in March, following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it jumped to $77, after which prices fluctuated sharply amid Middle East instability.

The ministry in this connection is deliberately budgeting a rather low oil price to mitigate the risks of unexpected deficits and the need to revise the budget throughout the year, the expert added.