We're over halfway through meteorological fall, but most of the season still hasn't felt like it. On the heels of the hottest September on record, we're off to a top 10 warmest start to October in Mid-MO.

Columbia's average temperature of 65.5 degrees through the 19th ties for 7th warmest on record in the first two thirds of the month. Average high temperatures have been even more notable. At 78.7 degrees, they rank 6th hottest for the period. That's closer to a late-summer pattern than to what we usually see as leaves start to change.

The heat is contributing to a growing drought. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, which includes data through the 13th, shows drought covering more than 48% of Missouri. Severe drought covers about a third of the state, and nearly 16% is in extreme drought.

About 1% of the state is in exceptional drought, the worst category on the scale. That area sits along the Arkansas border, southwest of Branson.

So what does that mean for fall color? The Missouri Department of Conservation reports that walnuts and persimmons are turning yellow, dogwoods are going orange, and maples are starting to show reds after our weekend frost. Oaks, however, are still fully green.

The drought and heat are taking a toll on the colors that do show up, so some may be more muted than usual. Stressed trees may also drop leaves before they have a chance to turn if the high temperatures continue.

That would cut the foliage season short in some spots. Mid-Missouri typically sees peak fall color in early to mid-November.

Unfortunately, there isn't much relief in sight. Climate Prediction Center outlooks favor above-average temperatures in Mid-Missouri for the next 14 days. They continue to lean warm through early November in the 3 to 4 week outlooks.

If you're hoping for strong fall color, keep an eye on the maples and the dogwoods, which are leading the way right now. If the warm, dry pattern holds, expect the color to be on the subdued side. Leaves may also fall faster than usual.

We'll keep tracking both the temperatures and the drought as we head toward November. Check back for updates as new Drought Monitor maps come out.