Even as Ryan Gosling launched his “Hail Mary” and Super Mario re-discovered his “Galaxy,” the bets were piling up on Kalshi: Which movie would win the summer?

Or would there be a winner at all? The mega-hits of seasons past reflected a comfy consensus in our pop culture, but today’s audience is splintered by genre and mood. The various Gens, whether in their teens or dotage, seem huddled in their Minecraft or chilling alone at Freddy’s.

Disney will be opening a new Star Wars and Toy Story this summer, but its headline “adventure” resides in its billion-dollar cruise ship of that name. Adventure sailed out of Singapore last week amid a massive publicity blitz depicting coasters, castles and “glockenspiel moments” for 6,600 passengers, but no actual sightseeing stops (they’re yesterday’s news).

To be sure, myriad “signature experiences” are also being unfurled by rival companies offering immersive attractions geared to Harry Potter or Stranger Things. The corporate impresarios seem to be asking, why buy movie tickets when live experience is in greater demand?

And there’s also a nostalgia camp out there that’s probing audience reception to past genres that reinforce pop culture rather than fragment it.

The trusty Wall Street Journal this week compiled a list of landmark shows that defined the tastes of its affluent, older readers. The list included I Love Lucy, Star Trek and All in the Family, even dusting off the old Ed Sullivan Show. “Starting in 1948 everyone gathered to see something novel without elaborate sets, digitization or AI” — hence “the shows that changed America.”

But the Journal then followed with another list in which readers predicted the sort of entertainment they would favor in the future – and were already sampling. Their answers: AI video games, interactive immersive fiction, VR-enhanced sports attractions and experiential board games like a techno-Monopoly.

Predicted one skeptic: ”The AI-generated content will be fed to a zombie audience that’s looking simply for explosions.”

In a more optimistic vein, Variety a decade ago ran a study of “boffo hits” that, in their moment, seemed to permanently re-align pop culture. They ranged from Modern Times to Hair to Casablanca to The Best Years of Our Lives.

Further, the hits had some important traits in common — a singularity of vision and a strong emotional tug. They also offered a secret ingredient: a sort of innate theatricality that galvanized audiences.

I bought a ticket this week to see a riveting movie titled The Drama but relatively few filmgoers or critics seemed to notice it. The movie generated distracting media noise because it dealt remotely (but effectively) with gun violence.

To me, The Drama was theatrical but likely will not rate as an experience worthy of a Kalshi wager. And that’s a fate that will await most prospective summer hits this season.