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A new poll released Friday by the Washington Post shows Democrat Troy Jackson maintaining a narrow lead over Republican Susan Collins in Maine’s U.S. Senate race, despite a bombshell report linking Collins’ circle with a convicted fraudster.

Jackson held a four-point lead, 50% to 46%, over the five-term incumbent in the poll — roughly the same as the survey’s margin of error of 3.6 percentage points. Three percent of those polled did not select a choice, while 1% said they’d vote for someone else.

“Another poll shows that Troy is connecting with voters on the issues that matter the most to Mainers,” senior campaign adviser David Farmer said in an emailed statement. “He’s working class and understands the issues that Mainers are facing.”

The survey is further evidence that the closely watched race will likely be a barn burner — one that may hinge on a small pool of undecided voters.

Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and former state Senate president, holds a two-point lead over Collins, according to a polling averages compiled by FiftyPlusOne. But some surveys, including a New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll released two weeks ago, showed Collins with a narrow lead, albeit within the margin of error.

The Post survey, done in partnership with the George Washington University Schar School of Policy and Government, was conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5.

It entered the field a week after ProPublica published a story about how the FBI had years ago begun a sweeping investigation into whether Collins engaged in an illegal pay-to-play scheme by steering government contracts to a donor. (Collins has denied any wrongdoing, saying she was cleared by the Biden administration. ProPublica has reported investigators were looking into Collins’ orbit until President Donald Trump took power in early 2025.)

The Washington Post poll showed the volatile waters that Collins, 73, is trying to navigate to win a sixth term. Fifty-two percent of voters said her 30 years in the Senate was a bad thing. That’s despite respondents giving her a 24 percentage point edge on bringing federal money back to Maine and giving her better marks for bipartisanship.

And President Donald Trump continues to loom large over the race. Sixty-three percent of respondents disapproved of the president’s job performance. And 58% said that Collins sides with Trump too often, compared to 33% who said she’s handled her relationship with the president “about right.”

A majority — 55% — said they wanted Democrats to win the Senate, compared to 42% for Republicans. That metric shows Collins is having at least some success pushing against the national political headwinds.

The top issues for voters were the cost of living (41%), immigration (13%), healthcare (12%) and taxes (6%).

Jackson, meanwhile, had a +1 net approval rating, but 13% of respondents had no opinion or skipped the question. That leaves a small opening for Republicans, who have a significant funding advantage, to introduce the Democrat to voters on their own terms through paid ads.

The 58-year-old Jackson held a 13-point lead among independents, 53% to 40%. His crossover appeal was also higher than Collins, pulling 9% support from Republicans compared to the incumbent’s 6% from Democrats, the poll found.

The survey also asked about Maine’s three-way race for governor. Again, Democrat Hannah Pingree held a double-digit lead over Republican Bobby Charles, 49%-36%. Independent Rick Bennett drew 11% support — his best showing in polling to date.