SUPPLY CRUNCH: Tersh Blissett, founder of Trade Automation Pros, co-founder of PhoneTAP and host of Service Business Mastery and Wrenches & Robots, outlines how AI and demand planning could best impact contractors’ ability to serve their local customers. (Courtesy of Tersh Blissett)

Q: How widely is AI being used in HVAC demand planning today?
Blissett: On the contractor side, where I live, less than the headlines suggest. Most shops I talk to are not running anything you’d call AI for purchasing. They’re running on a good purchasing manager’s gut and last year’s numbers. I can’t speak to how far along the manufacturers and distributors are internally, but from where I sit, the gap between the big players and the average 10-truck shop is wide.

  Q: How are these tools changing inventory and seasonal ordering for distributors?
Blissett: I can speak to the contractor’s side of that same problem, because it's the same problem one rung down the chain. A contractor is basically running a mini distribution operation: parts on the trucks, parts in the warehouse, parts on the job. The tools built for us are getting smart fast. Ply is the one I’d point you to as an example. It tracks live inventory across every truck and warehouse, sends usage-based reorder alerts, and even compares vendor pricing so you're not overpaying when you restock. They had a customer find over a million dollars in excess inventory just by getting visibility they didn’t have before. That’s the kind of thing that used to take a sharp ops person with a clipboard, and now software catches it.

  Q: Can you share an example where forecasting prevented a shortage or missed opportunity?

Q: How could better forecasting and visibility help contractors specifically?
Blissett: This is the one I care most about. Three things change for me if the supply chain gets smarter: lead times get predictable, so I can promise a customer an install date and actually hit it. Pricing gets less jumpy, because panic buying drives prices up and that cost lands on my customer. And availability means I’m not losing a job because the homeowner doesn't want to wait two weeks for equipment. Better visibility upstream is money and trust downstream, directly in my pocket and my customer's experience.

  Q: What is slowing adoption of AI forecasting tools?
Blissett: For contractors, a few things I see every day. One, trust — a purchasing manager who’s been right for 20 years isn’t going to hand the keys to a black box overnight. Two, the tools are often built for the enterprise, not for a smaller shop, so they're either too expensive or too complicated. Three, the data inside most contractors’ systems is messy, and AI on messy data just gives you confident, wrong answers. The shops aren’t dumb for waiting; they’re being practical.

  Q: Do you see AI demand planning becoming essential across the supply chain?.