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Mapping Export Sustainability in Frozen Cephalopods: Destination Concentration and Revealed Comparative Advantage in China, Indonesia, India, Spain, Morocco, and Argentina (2020–2024) [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]

Дата публикации: 08-10-2026 12:09:44

Background Frozen squid and cuttlefish (Harmonized System code 030743) form a commercially relevant segment of global cephalopod trade, with implications for cold-chain logistics, traceability and the economic resilience of exporting countries. Despite this relevance, comparable cross-country evidence on how export portfolios are structured and how relative specialization evolves remains limited. The study describes and compares destination diversification and revealed export positioning of frozen cephalopod exports for China, Indonesia, India, Spain, Morocco and Argentina between 2020 and 2024. Methods A quantitative, non-experimental, retrospective longitudinal design was applied using secondary statistics from the United Nations International Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade). Destination diversification was measured through the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), computed from the complete distribution of export shares across importing partners. Revealed specialization was assessed through the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), obtained from the symmetric transformation of the Balassa index. The description was complemented with summary statistics (means, standard deviations, coefficients of variation and concentration ratios) and with exploratory non-parametric tests (Kruskal–Wallis, Friedman and Spearman correlations) that compare countries and years without inferring causal mechanisms; cleaning and harmonization followed documented routines to ensure replicability. Results Cross-country heterogeneity was marked. China showed sustained deconcentration, with HHI declining from 1,134 to 704. India maintained a stable, moderately concentrated portfolio. Argentina moved from high concentration toward a more distributed structure, with partial reconcentration in 2024. Indonesia deepened its concentration, with HHI rising from 2,964 to 3,894, and Morocco remained highly concentrated throughout. Spain preserved high concentration despite redistribution among secondary markets. Between-country differences in HHI were large (Kruskal–Wallis H = 27.4, p < 0.001, ε2 = 0.95), whereas no common year effect was detected (Friedman χ2 = 3.07, p = 0.547); across country–years, destination-level RSCA was moderately and inversely associated with concentration (Spearman ρ = −0.40, p = 0.030). RSCA values evidenced persistent revealed specialization for India and Argentina, China’s repositioning in selected destinations, Indonesia’s Asia-centered specialization, and Morocco’s competitiveness embedded in Mediterranean outlets. Conclusions Three descriptive export profiles were identified: diversified and stable; growth-oriented yet dependent; and specialized but destination-vulnerable. Supported by explicit summary statistics and exploratory tests, this typology offers a replicable baseline for sustainability discussions without inferring causal mechanisms.

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