In the first part of the sentiment survey, published on Tuesday, we examined the national average. Our article revealed the following:

• Our respondents expect housing prices to increase further at the national level, albeit at a slower pace.
• In addition to the normalisation of price increases, the surveyed experts expect a decline in the number of housing transactions this year.
• The proportion of homes purchased with loans may increase within the total number of transactions, with Home Start accounting for an increasingly large share.
• They anticipate a decline in the number of newly built properties handed over in the second half of 2025 compared to the previous year, though they forecast growth for the first half of this year.
• Although the increase in rents has slowed down and we have even seen a decline in some places in recent months, experts still expect growth at the national level.

Now let's focus on Budapest!

According to the Budapest Housing Market Report by Eltinga, the average price per square metre for new apartments in Budapest increased to HUF 1.83 million in Q4 of 2025. For the sake of simplicity and predictability, Portfolio asked experts for estimates for a six-month period, and we calculated trends using these intervals.

Following growth of 15% in the first half of 2025 and 14% in the second, experts forecast a slowdown to "only" 10% in the first half of 2026.

The average price per square metre for new homes was HUF 1.8 million in the second half of last year. Only a further increase of around 5% is expected in the first half of this year.

While no large-scale handover of residential properties is expected in the first half of 2026, the first developers may emerge who can sign contracts to sell apartments still under construction, having exercised their condominium construction rights. Most of the projects receiving state support are expected to be built in the capital, so the HUF 1.5 million price limit will also be reflected in new apartment prices there. (The graph below shows priority residential property projects - district, project name, number of apartments to be built.)

In the previous part of our series of articles, we reported in detail that, although the upward trend in residential rents is continuing nationwide, this dynamic is slowing down. According to the median expectation of experts, this increase may be around 6% in the first half of this year.

Well, this trend is even more noticeable in the case of rents in Budapest. After experiencing annual growth rates higher than the national average, the tide turned in the first half of 2023. The year-on-year change became smaller and smaller

until it was almost negligible by the first half of 2026. This equates to an approximate annual rate of 4%, which would mean a dynamic of around 2% in this six-month period.

These factors mean that investment real estate is no longer as lucrative as it was in its heyday, when prices and rents were skyrocketing. In its November Housing Market Report, the Hungarian National Bank notes that, based on data from Duna House, investors have been more active on the supply side of the market since the third quarter of last year than in previous quarters, partly due to the continuing decline in rental yields. Increased demand has reduced buyers' bargaining power.

In light of this, we asked experts to share their thoughts on the potential development of residential property purchases for investment purposes in Budapest over the next year.

According to László Balogh, chief analyst at ingatlan.com, Budapest investors have been taught a lesson: not only has the rapid rise in apartment prices come to an end, but there has also been a slight correction in recent months. Rents are falling too, and local governments are increasingly restricting how properties can be used. For example, the Terézváros local government has banned Airbnb-type usage completely, and several other districts are considering restrictions. Meanwhile, the Buda Castle local government may introduce higher taxes on unoccupied apartments.

The only obvious solution for investors in Budapest seems to be new apartments offered at a good price, which are also part of the Home Start programme. For this reason, Balogh expects investment-driven property purchases in Budapest to decline from 26-28% to 18-22% in 2026.

Others also predict a downward trend. According to Otthon Centrum analyst Ádám Krakker, investment-driven residential property purchases in the capital will decline by around 25% this year. Meanwhile, Eltinga expert Tünde Tancsics expects stagnation or a slight decline, and Bankmonitor head Balázs Sándorfi forecasts a 10% fall in the number of units sold.

According to Gábor Kiss, the CEO of Metrodom, their market share will remain at around 30–40%. Antal Ballagó, the CEO of Mapsolutions, also estimates this figure to be around 30%. Gyula László Nagy, head of MBH Mortgage Bank, believes this figure could be closer to 33–35% in Budapest.

According to Péter Futó, an analyst at Zenga.hu, rents have been unable to keep pace with dynamic price increases over the past year. The sudden rise in prices has also reduced the potential for future appreciation. Due to lower-than-usual returns in previous years, investors are not rushing to buy real estate. Futó expects that the vast majority of purchases this year will be for personal use.

Ákos Balla, Sales Director at Bayer Property, believes that the uncertainty surrounding the spring parliamentary elections will affect the residential investment market. He expects a slight decline until then, followed by stagnation.

According to Dániel Csorba, a real estate expert and the host of the Kalmárok podcast, as well as the co-founder of Dandan Realty, the current poor situation will only continue to deteriorate. This will result in increasingly weak returns and high square metre prices, which will not benefit either long-term rentals or so-called 'flipping'.

Flipping involves quickly purchasing an undervalued or renovable apartment or house, renovating it in a targeted manner, and then selling it at a higher price within a short period of time. The profit comes from the price difference and the added value.

We also asked the experts for their opinions on how foreign property purchases in Budapest might develop over the next year. Several of them predicted no change: Krakker, Tancsics, Kiss and Ballagó all forecast stagnation, while Sándorfi believes purchases may decline slightly.

According to Futó, the small group of Western European retirees who primarily buy family homes in rural areas will continue to be a factor, while downtown Budapest will remain attractive to non-EU buyers, particularly those from the Far East. He believes that the number and proportion of property purchases by foreigners will likely remain similar in 2026 to that seen in recent years.

According to the latest data from the Central Statistical Office (KSH), foreign buyers accounted for 7.8% of all home purchases in Budapest in 2024, representing one-tenth of the total turnover. These buyers were concentrated in the inner districts of Pest, accounting for 19% of transactions there. In terms of total value, they accounted for 10% of the entire housing market in the capital and 26% in the inner districts of Pest. Far Eastern citizens, particularly Vietnamese and Chinese nationals, made the most purchases in Budapest, but Russians and Israelis were also among the leaders. The total value corresponded to 3.9% of the total market turnover.

Csorba also cites this year's elections as one of the most important factors influencing the purchasing decisions of foreigners. In his opinion, "everything depends on what kind of government is formed in April." If the situation remains unchanged, the trend will most likely continue, meaning buyers will disappear further, he added. Balla also expects a significant decline in the first half of the year due to the uncertainty surrounding the elections, followed by stagnation. He expects foreign purchases to account for around 7-8% of the total in the coming year.

Balogh does not expect any significant changes, but this could quickly be overturned by several factors, in either a positive or negative direction. In response to a question from Portfolio, he explained, "The weakening of the forint is often accompanied by an increase in foreign home buyers, mainly in border areas. However, a possible Airbnb ban throughout Budapest or the introduction of municipal settlement contribution requirements for foreign home buyers could reduce their share of the market."

The following experts participated in the survey: Ákos Balla – Bayer Property, Antal Ballagó – Mapsolutions, László Balogh – ingatlan.com, Dániel Csorba – sales representative, Péter Futó – zenga.hu, Gábor Kiss – Metrodom, Ádám Krakker – Otthon Centrum, Gyula László Nagy – MBH Mortgage Bank, Balázs Sándorfi – Bankmonitor, Tünde Tancsics – Eltinga.

Cover image (for illustration purposes only): Getty Images