By Adam Burke
VSiN

October 8, 2026 - 2:52 pm

From the dry heat of Las Vegas to the humidity of Charlotte, North Carolina, NASCAR Cup Series drivers face a much different environment this week as the Chase reaches its second half.

There are 10 Chase races, and Sunday’s Bank of America 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway is Race No. 6. The event will not be run on the Roval. Instead, it will be contested on the main oval track, a change announced in February.

This marks a return to a more traditional stop at Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord, North Carolina, and likely benefits some drivers more than others. With Charlotte, Phoenix, Talladega, Martinsville and Homestead-Miami remaining on the schedule, the drama is escalating for postseason contenders.

All 16 drivers who qualified for the Cup Series Chase remain in championship contention throughout the postseason. Point totals were reset under a new format, ranging from 2,100 to 2,000 to start the Chase.

Kyle Larson - 2318

Denny Hamlin - 2278

Christopher Bell - 2263

Joey Logano - 2247

Ryan Blaney - 2238

Chase Briscoe - 2234

Tyler Reddick - 2212

Ty Gibbs - 2208

Austin Cindric - 2190

Bubba Wallace - 2181

Carson Hocevar - 2160

William Byron - 2158

Chase Elliott - 2155

Daniel Suarez - 2123

Chris Buescher - 2122

Ryan Preece - 2118

Briscoe delivered a dominant performance in Las Vegas, sweeping the weekend by winning his second race of the season along with Stage 1 and Stage 2. He’s still well off the pace in the standings, but the victory gave him a legitimate opportunity to climb back into contention. Through five playoff races, the winners have been Bell, Larson (twice), Logano and Briscoe.

While Briscoe stole the spotlight, Larson continued his strong postseason with a second-place finish, extending his points lead over Hamlin to 40. Hamlin earned the pole and posted the fastest lap but finished 18th. Blaney recorded another top-five finish, while Reddick placed third for the third time in six races. Cindric, who finished 13th, 10th and 11th in the first three Chase races, has placed second and fourth over the past two weeks.

This race had been held on the Roval, the combination road-and-oval course, since 2018 but returns to the traditional 1.5-mile oval this year. As a result, it may be more useful to evaluate drivers based on recent Coca-Cola 600 performances because this race now more closely resembles that event, albeit with fewer laps and miles.

Suarez won at Charlotte in May, while Ross Chastain captured last year’s race. Before that, the winners were familiar names such as Bell, Blaney, Hamlin and Larson. Suarez’s victory came in a rain-shortened event that covered only 373 miles.

If the Roval races are included, Charlotte has produced 10 different winners over the past 10 races. Byron has accumulated the most points during that span despite not being one of those winners. He has four top-five finishes and six top-10s. Hamlin also has five top-five finishes and six top-10s. Bell owns one victory and three top-five finishes in eight Charlotte starts. Reddick, who also has not won at Charlotte, owns the best average finish among active drivers at 9.5 across eight starts.

Steve Makinen runs two NASCAR simulations each week for VSiN, one on Tuesdays and another after qualifying. Here’s what his model projects for the Bank of America 400:

Top 5: Gibbs, Larson, Bell, Byron, Blaney

Top underdogs (+1100 or higher): Gibbs, Blaney, Logano, Byron

Favorites to struggle: Briscoe, Hocevar, Wallace, Elliott

For the latest odds and VSiN’s NASCAR Best Bets, visit the VSiN NASCAR Hub to see Makinen’s simulation results and additional driver statistics.