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Navigating New Ways of Arctic Research

Дата публикации: 10-09-2026 18:34:13

"Stranger Things" in the 2026 Arctic
The continuation of cool and stormy conditions over the Arctic Ocean during September bookends the strange summer of 2026. While global air temperatures were at or near record highs for June, July, and August, the summer was cool and stormy over the Arctic Ocean. The Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied for tenth lowest on the satellite record with 2008, 2010, and 2025, with a loose ice pack on the Atlantic side extending to the pole. However, the post-minimum freeze up has been rapid. Antarctic sea ice extent, which reached its maximum on September 14, dropped sharply through September, hitting record low daily extents since October 2.Overview of conditionsArctic sea ice extent for September 2026 averaged 4.81 million square kilometers (1.86 million square miles), thirteenth lowest in the satellite record (Figure 1a). This monthly average extent was 1.6 million square kilometers (618,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average (Figure 1b). Since the seasonal sea ice minimum that occurred on September 12, tying for tenth lowest in the satellite record, extent as of early October remains below average along the Eurasian coast, especially in the Kara and Barents Seas. While the Northern Sea route appears to be largely free of ice, significant ice remains in the southern (Amundsen’s) route of the Northwest Passage. Heavy ice cover blocks M’Clure Strait, the west end of the deepwater northern route. While a loose icepack in over the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean allowed the Swedish icebreaker Oden to reach the North Pole, open water areas quickly refroze after the seasonal sea ice minimum, and as of early October, extent had risen to the lower interdecile range of extents in the satellite record. 
























Figure 1a. Arctic sea ice extent for September 2026 was 4.81 million square kilometers (1.86 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1981 to 2010 average extent for that month. Sea Ice Index data. About the data — Credit: National Snow and Ice Data CenterFigure 1b. This graph shows Arctic sea ice extent as of October 5, 2026, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years and the record low year. 2026 is shown in blue, 2025 in green, 2024 in orange, 2023 in brown, 2022 in magenta, and 2012 in dashed brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Sea Ice Index data. — Credit: National Snow and Ice Data CenterConditions in contextAs was the case for all of summer (see summer summary below), low sea level pressure dominated the Arctic Ocean during September, accompanied by below-average temperatures that fostered rapid ice growth (Figure 2a). Air temperatures at the 925 hPa level (about 2,500 feet above the surface) were 0 to 1 degree Celsius (0 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit) below average over much of the Arctic Ocean, but strongly above average over northern Eurasia (Figure 2b).
























Figure 2a. This plot shows average sea level pressure in the Arctic in hectopascals for September 2026. Yellows and reds indicate high air pressure; blues and purples indicate low pressure. — Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences LaboratoryFigure 2b. This plot shows the departure from average air temperature in the Arctic at the 925 hPa level, in degrees Celsius, for September 2026. Yellows and reds indicate above average temperatures; blues and purples indicate below average temperatures. — Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences LaboratorySeptember 2026 compared to previous yearsThe downward linear trend in September Arctic sea ice extent through 2026 is 74,100 square kilometers (28,600 square miles) per year or 11.6 percent per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average (Figure 3). Based on the linear trend, since 1979, September has lost 3.24 million square kilometers (1.25 million square miles) of sea ice. This is equivalent to twice the size of Alaska.  














Figure 3. Monthly September ice extent for 1979 to 2026 shows a decline of 11.6 percent per decade.



— Credit:
National Snow and Ice Data Center


Regional contributions to September extentFor this monthly post, we present a time series of September monthly ice extents in a new format (Figure 4). The black line depicts the overall trend. Regional differences from average for each year are shown as colored bars for each sector of the Arctic. This presents the data in a way that allows some insight into the contributions to the overall positive or negative September extent difference from average. Since 2007, with few exceptions, differences from average have been negative in all sectors; in the last century, regional differences were more varied. Since 2007, negative differences from average in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas have remained prominent, but their magnitudes have shifted from year to year largely in response to shifting summer weather patterns.














Figure 4. This time series shows Arctic sea ice extent for the month of September as a whole (black line) along with regional differences from the 1981 to 2010 average for every year since 1979.



— Credit:
J. Stroeve, National Snow and Ice Data Center


Spring in the AntarcticAfter reaching its maximum extent on September 14, Antarctic sea ice extent sharply declined, and as of October 6, was close to the record low for the date set in 2023. As was done for the Arctic, a graph presents the September Antarctic sea ice extent time series along with differences from average for each year (Figure 5). While the low extents since 2022 stand out clearly, in each of these low years, extent was above average in some sectors. This stands in sharp contrast to the Arctic. Note how in 2022, extent was above average in the Ross Sea, shifting to below average in 2023. However, during the record maximum extents of 2012 to 2015, nearly all regions showed a positive difference from average. 














Figure 5. This time series shows Antarctic sea ice extent for the month of September as a whole (black line) along with regional differences from the 1981 to 2010 average for each year since 1979.



— Credit:
J. Stroeve, National Snow and Ice Data Center


The 2026 summer melt season in summaryThe 2026 melt season in the Arctic was unusual in the extreme. Through most of May, extent was tracking at near record low levels. Starting in June, the pace of ice loss substantially slowed, and the minimum extent, which occurred on September 12, ended up as tenth lowest in the satellite record, tying with 2008, 2010, and 2025. Nevertheless, the loose ice pack on the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean, extending nearly to the North Pole, eased the voyage of the Swedish icebreaker Oden to the pole, carrying scientists along with tourists.A highly stormy atmospheric pattern over the central Arctic Ocean attended by cool and cloudy conditions inhibited sea ice melt. A pronounced average low pressure centered near the North Pole lingered in June, July, and August (Figure 6a). While cyclone activity over the central Arctic Ocean tends to be maximized in summer, the persistence of this cyclonic pattern was remarkable. In summer, in “free drift” conditions, where there is little floe-to-floe interaction, cyclonic (counterclockwise) winds promote the spreading of the sea ice cover, which likely accounts for the loose ice conditions just noted. Past research shows that summer cyclones that enter the Arctic Ocean, especially from Eurasia and mature in their passage, develop a cold-cored structure. Each cyclone moving into the region reinforces the persistent cold-cored, low structure, which extends into the tropopause much like a vertical stack. Interestingly, based on the ERA5 reanalysis, despite all the cyclones, summer precipitation over the Arctic Ocean as a whole was not notably above average.   The attendant pattern of summer air temperature as a difference from average at the 925 millibar level (about 2,500 feet above the surface) was equally unusual (Figure 6b). When sea ice cover is melting, air temperatures will hover around the freezing point. However, over much of the ocean, temperatures remained below average. This was especially clear in June when melt started late. While temperatures over the ocean reflected the cold-cored nature of cyclone maximum and extensive cloud cover, temperatures on Arctic land were far above average over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, western Europe, and central Eurasia. 
























Figure 6a. This plot shows average sea level pressure in the Arctic in millibars for June, July, and August. Yellows and reds indicate high air pressure; blues and purples indicate low pressure. — Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences LaboratoryFigure 6b. This plot shows the departure from average air temperature in the Arctic at the 925 hPa level, in degrees Celsius, for the months of June, July, and August. Yellows and reds indicate above average temperatures; blues and purples indicate below average temperatures. — Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences LaboratoryThe cyclonic pattern persisted through September. After reaching its sea ice minimum on September 12, autumn freeze up was rapid, and as of this post, extent had reached the lowest decile in the satellite record.This cyclonic pattern also played a role in the late melt out of the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. Unusual compared to recent years, sea ice remained near the Alaskan coast into August, which is near the location of the 1981 to 2010 average. However, the ice melted rapidly and by the end of August, the region was largely ice free in the passive microwave data (though operational ice charts indicated low concentration ice).Relatively cool conditions and cyclonic pressure contributed to the late ice loss. The reason that the ice eventually did melt was because the area was dominated by first-year ice, which is thinner and more susceptible to melt out completely (Figure 6c). Overall, the Arctic sea ice cover has much less multiyear ice and thus is thinner than it was during the 1980s. Since 2007, at the end of the summer melt season, the multiyear extent has varied between 1.3 million and 1.9 million square kilometers (502,000 square miles and 734,000 square miles), significantly lower than the roughly 3.5 million square kilometers (1.35 million square miles) during the 1980s. And since 2012, the oldest, thickest ice (greater than 4-years old) has nearly disappeared, with 250,000 square kilometers (97,000 square miles) or less each year compared to the approximate 1.5 million square kilometers (579,000 square miles) before 2005. While this summer was relatively cool over the Arctic Ocean, the long-term warming trend has resulted in more melt and faster distribution of sea ice, which means that ice is not surviving nearly as long as it used to. 














Figure 6c. The top left map shows Arctic sea ice age during the week of March 12 to 18, 2026, the week of the maximum extent; a larger swath of first-year ice extends into the Beaufort Sea, though older ice is found near the coast. The top right map shows Arctic sea ice age during the week of September 3 to 9, 2026, just before the minimum extent; most of the ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas has melted out. The bottom time series shows extent of multiyear ice in black and ice greater than 4-years old in red at the seasonal minimum for 1985 to 2026. The oldest ice (in red) shows substantial decline.



— Credit:
Tschudi et al., 2019a and 2019b


Sea ice in the Antarctic remained below the lowest interdecile range since the beginning of the austral growth season that started in late March 2026, but above the record low of 2023 (Figure 6d). The maximum extent, reached on September 14, was the third lowest in the satellite record, repeating a recent pattern of low maximum extents discussed in more detail above. Since October 2, extent has fallen to record low daily values, surpassing 2023’s records. The post-maximum areas of loss are in the Ross and Amundsen seas, and the Indian Ocean sector (Figure 6e). 
























Figure 6d. The graph above shows Antarctic sea ice extent as of October 6, 2026, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years and the record 2014 year. 2026 is shown in blue, 2025 in green, 2024 in orange, 2023 in brown, 2022 in magenta, and 2014 in dashed brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Sea Ice Index data. — Credit: National Snow and Ice Data CenterFigure 6e. Antarctic sea ice extent for September 2026 was 17.32 million square kilometers (6.69 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1981 to 2010 average extent for that month. Sea Ice Index data. About the data — Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center    
agnieszka.gaut…
Wed, 10/07/2026 - 14:00

Article Type
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Publish Date
Wed, 10/07/2026 - 12:00


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Feature Story

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2026

By Agnieszka Gautier

Even the most well-intentioned Arctic research can fall short for Indigenous communities. Historically, academic research from dominant cultures has extracted Indigenous Knowledge without adequately considering community participation. The phenomena known as “helicopter or parachute science” refers to researchers flying into distant northern regions, extracting data or stories, and then flying out with little interaction with Indigenous Peoples afterward. In this model, data collection is prioritized over relationship building and equitable partnership. Even in recent decades, researchers have used consent and release forms that effectively signed over documented Indigenous Knowledge to their universities.

More recent initiatives have aimed to include Indigenous voices into Arctic research. In 2016, the US National Science Foundation (NSF) released its 10 big ideas for long-term research and developed the Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) program, which addresses the challenges of a rapidly changing Arctic where temperatures are rising at four times the rate of the global average. Consequently, the Arctic is a hotspot for environmental shifts with rippling effects on its communities. 

Too often the Arctic is imagined as a barren, uninhabited landscape. The opposite is true. About four million people live in the Arctic, including more than 500,000 Indigenous Peoples with their own languages, cultural practices, and relationships to the land. The Arctic landscape is dynamic, morphing from expansive tundra into rugged mountains with marine ecosystems bleeding into coastal wetlands. From the boreal forests to sea ice, these complex environments require consistent, regular monitoring to better understand the changes unfolding. 

In 2021, the NNA-Community Office (CO) was established to help coordinate multiple projects, build lasting partnerships, and offer resources and opportunities for knowledge exchange. The central office is based at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), at the University of Colorado (CU) Boulder with partner locations at Alaska Pacific University (APU) and the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF). The NNA-CO supports the goals of NNA through communication, coordination, education, and outreach. Though the NNA program has not accepted new proposals since 2023, the NNA-CO continues to support currently funded projects. Without continued funding, however, the NNA program is nearing an end. 

A Nenets woman stands with her reindeer herd in the Far North on the Yamal Peninsula in Russia. The Nenets are an Indigenous group in the Russian Arctic, numbering about 49,000, known for reindeer herding and annual migrations of up to 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) across the Yamal Peninsula.” — Credit: Adobe Stock

A different approach

An integral component of the NNA-CO is to take a different approach to Arctic research. Nikoosh Carlo, a co-principal investigator (co-PI) for the Community Office and the founder of CNC North Consulting, explains, “So maybe we’re having a cup of tea at the kitchen table, or we’re cutting fish, or we’re doing some other thing that some might think is not related to research itself, but it's really related to building the relationship to say, ‘Well, what are some things that we can work on together? Where do our interests align?’”  

Carlo believes that fostering relationships needs to occur even before a research proposal is submitted. As part of the US NSF’s approach to long-term research, the NNA-CO has supported planning grants. While not unique to NNA, these grants have helped broaden the awareness of the importance of building relationships before beginning this type of work. “In order to solve these complex problems in the Arctic, it’s going to need all different types of information,” Carlo added. Working with communities whose knowledge is rooted in millennia of experience on these lands is key to building a more holistic understanding of Arctic change. Carlo has personal experience behind different ways of knowing and learning beyond academia.

Though Carlo grew up in Fairbanks, Alaska, her ancestral roots run deep into the interior of Alaska along the Yukon River. “My experience with learning and interacting with other people is multi-generational,” Carlo said. Learning involves a lot of watching, listening, and doing. As a child, sitting on the floor while Elders gathered at the kitchen table, Carlo learned to be present. “At some point, you may ask a question or without even knowing when, you become part of the process of learning,” she added. “So, it’s a combination of trying and doing things, even if you’re going to get it wrong. It’s the act of just trying to do it that matters.” Carlo sees parallels between her childhood experience and how the NNA-CO should function.  

That different approach comes down to coproduction or cocreation: different groups working together with an understanding of their respective responsibilities and goals, grounded in mutual respect. Carlo described coproduction as taking the time to sit down and design what the relationship should be and what the expectations are for roles and responsibilities. “It’s really asking someone to just be an informed good person,” said NSIDC researcher Matthew Druckenmiller, the Community Office Director. “Show up, involve people, see value in difference. In many ways, it’s just common sense. It makes more sense, though, when you see where we’ve made progress and where we still have a lot of progress to do.”  

Nothing about us without us 

One of the NNA-CO's major efforts is to bring people together in different ways. Rather than individual researchers presenting their work, the NNA-CO strives toward a mix of dialogue and discussion, offering panel or teaching sessions for stronger participant engagement.   

For example, during the Arctic Science Summit Week (ASSW), which took place in March 2025 in Boulder, Colorado, the NNA-CO supported and co-hosted the Indigenous Pavilion, where participants could gather in a more intimate setting. The summit brought more than 800 researchers and Indigenous experts, focused on developing a strategy for the next decade of Arctic research. The pavilion offered a place where meaningful connections could be made, which can be difficult in lecture-based, large conferences. The structure featured two interwoven tents with an outdoor firepit to gather around. In the evenings, singing, dancing, and food sharing helped build connections among attendees. As the summit concluded, the Indigenous participants and supporters came together to hold up a banner stating, a phrase that captures a grounding principle for research in Indigenous homelands: Nothing about us without us. 

Participants gather to take a photo in front of an "Indigenous Pavilion," a ceremonial space designed to uplift Indigenous voices in Arctic research at the 2025 Arctic Science Summit Week. — Credit: International Arctic Science Committee (IASC)

Druckenmiller believes it is a profound statement and speaks to how research in the past often excluded these voices. “Even projects that had immediate relevance and could benefit Arctic communities rarely delivered results back to the people who need it the most,” Druckenmiller said. “So, if you're trying to support, whether you call it adaptation or resilience or just informed planning, it really requires the solutions being sustainable in the community, culturally appropriate, place based.” But that requires a longer-term perspective than a typical three-year grant allows. 

Druckenmiller emphasizes that there is no substitute for time. To truly engage on a community level requires tremendous commitment. However, research positions are often not designed to sustain long-term projects. “I think there are ways of improving upon this model,” Druckenmiller said, “and I think the Community Office has shed light on that in a lot of ways.” Coproduction is essential, and the NNA-CO has embraced that concept, supporting progress through their relationship-building approach at conferences such as ASSW.

The Indigenous Pavilion at the 2026 Arctic Science Summit Week

The Indigenous Pavilion at the 2026 Arctic Science Summit Week on the campus of the University of Aarhus in Aarhus, Denmark. — Credit: Vera Kuklina, 2026

In March 2026, at the ASSW in Aarhus, Denmark, the NNA-CO again supported a team that created an Indigenous Pavilion modeled on the one in Colorado. “The pavilion made us feel at home again,” said Indigenous scholar Inga Hensen. “To show our cultures with singing and ceremonies made us feel like yes, even though there is a summit about the Arctic we can go back to our roots, and within seconds we can adapt to the mainstream way of western society conference.” Another Indigenous scholar Vera Kuklina said, “The Pavilion provided me with the unique opportunity to meet, learn from, and build relations with Arctic scholars, artists, and knowledge holders across the whole Arctic. I’m inspired by our Indigenous scholars who walk two worlds and bring together the best of them.” 

The next NNA Annual Community Meeting will be held in September 2026 in Fairbanks, Alaska, focusing on “Living with Change.”

Identifying our legacy 

With less than three years of funding remaining, the NNA-CO is looking to the future. Kuklina said, “I greatly appreciate the efforts and dedication of our allies who in the current situation of shrinking funding and public pressure keep supporting us in all endeavors.” Without a dedicated funding stream, however, projects built around coproduction of knowledge may be harder to develop and sustain.  

As active NNA projects wind down, the Community Office will eventually do the same, raising a question about its legacy. “I like to say its legacy will be the people,” Carlo said. “The people it brought in to have conversations around what it means to work co-creatively. What does it mean to consider knowledges that are different and more diverse than academically trained science? What does it mean for institutions to structure their organization to support this work? I think the Community Office has illustrated these questions more clearly.” 

The answers are only beginning to take shape at some institutions, but growing awareness that the NNA initiative can provide greater value than the sum of its individually funded projects has already left a mark. As Carlo put it, “We can work together and consider different perspectives, different types of knowledge, including Indigenous Knowledge that is deeply rooted to a place and over generations, to drive research questions and to then know how to apply the research results on the backend.” 

Druckenmiller hopes that part of the Community Office’s legacy will be the ability to demonstrate what has come out of this research and investment. “We want to be able to revisit what we’ve done here and look at how career trajectories have shifted or who’s still engaged a few years down the road,” he said. To do this, the NNA-CO is developing an evaluation framework to share NNA results and lessons with NSF leadership, policymakers, and Indigenous organizations. Druckenmiller added, “This detailed accounting will catalog what was realized with this $150 million investment, and hopefully it will provide a bit of a roadmap for future research investments.” 

But as Carlo sees it, the Community Office’s most enduring legacy may ultimately be simpler: the people and relationships it brought together.

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