Benjamin Cowen, the founder of Into the Cryptoverse, predicted on May 27, 2026, that the Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) cycle bottom would likely occur in the fourth quarter, with October as the most probable month and a revisit of $60,000 first. At that time, Bitcoin was priced around $75,650.

Bitcoin reached the $60,000 mark, but sooner than Cowen expected. It closed at $58,555 on June 30, dipping to $57,717 during the day, and has since surged approximately 47% to $85,896 as of October 6.

While Cowen was accurate about the price point, his timing was off. So, does this call still count as correct?

Cowen’s predictions are based on Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. This cycle is influenced by a process called “halving,” which reduces the number of new coins miners earn about every four years. Many in the crypto community believe this causes price tops and bottoms to repeat at similar intervals.

In his analysis, Cowen tracks the days from the lowest point of one bear market to the next peak. According to his calculations, this cycle peaked on day 1,162, while previous cycles peaked on day 1,059 and day 1,168. Because those peaks were so close together, he assumed that the bottoms might also follow a similar pattern, pointing to October 2026 as the time for the next bottom.

However, this method relies on just three past cycles. A rule based on such limited data can sometimes fail to predict future movements accurately.

On the price front, Cowen deserves credit for naming the $60,000 figure when Bitcoin was trading around $75,650. The close on June 30 at $58,555 was only slightly below his target.

That said, the $60,000 level wasn’t exactly a secret; Bitcoin had already established a support level at $60,033 in February 2026. Three months before Cowen made his prediction, traders were already eyeing this price level.

Cowen also cautioned that a quiet market top could lead to a significant drop, stating, “topping on apathy doesn’t mean you don’t have a bear market.” This warning proved accurate: Bitcoin has fallen around 30% over the past year, trading roughly 32% below its record high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025.

The low actually hit on June 30, three months before Cowen’s predicted timeframe even began. As October rolls in, Bitcoin is now about 47% above that low.

This missed timing is significant for anyone who acted on his prediction. A buyer waiting for an October dip missed the rally from $58,555 to $85,896, an 8% gain over the past 30 days. A forecast is only as good as the action one can take on it, making the misjudged date more impactful than the closing price.

Since Cowen specified October for his prediction, this nuance distinguishes it from other analyses that solely focus on price.

October isn’t over yet, and with analysts like Jordi Visser suggesting that Bitcoin falling below $80,000 at month-end could signal a problem, there’s still room for volatility. However, even a drop to that level would keep Bitcoin well above its June 30 low.

In our opinion, the call cannot be considered correct—at least not yet. Cowen accurately predicted the price but misjudged the timing, and forecasts are typically judged by their specified dates. For investors, the most valuable insight from Cowen’s prediction remains his warning about a potential bear market following a quiet top.

With the fourth quarter running through December 31, Cowen still has a chance to prove his timing right. If Bitcoin dips below the $57,717 intraday low, roughly 33% under $85,896, then June 30 would no longer be seen as the bottom, validating his timeframe. Conversely, if Bitcoin stays above $57,717 until December 31, the June 30 low will hold as the cycle’s bottom, making Cowen’s call close on price but early on timing.

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