BRUSSELS, BELGIUM – COCERAL, in its latest forecast of the EU-27+UK grain crop, projects the drought-stricken 2026 grain crop at 279 million tonnes, down 8 million tonnes from its July forecast and well below last year’s crop of 307.4 million tonnes.

The European association that focuses on agricultural trade forecasts wheat production (excluding durum) at 137.5 million tonnes, down from the previous forecast of 140.8 million tonnes and from 148.7 million tonnes in 2025.

“While the wheat crop in the important growing areas of northern France survived the heatwaves in May and June in adequate shape, the German and Polish crop was hit more significantly and turned out below earlier expectations,” COCERAL said.

Barley production is forecast at 57.9 million tonnes, slightly up from the previous estimate of 57.6 million tonnes but well below the 63.3 million tonnes produced last year.

COCERAL’s EU-27+UK 2026 corn production forecast was revised sharply lower. Due to extremely hot and dry weather conditions during pollination in the key western and central European growing areas, expectations were reduced from an already low previous forecast of 52.7 million tonnes to 48.6 million tonnes, it said. If realized, it will be well below last year’s output of 56.5 million tonnes.

“The French crop is expected to drop to just 7.6 million tonnes, down from the previous forecast of 9.4 million tonnes and almost 50% down from last year’s 13.8 million tonnes,” COCERAL said. “The projected crop would the lowest in more than 20 years. The Hungarian crop is expected at just 1.9 million tonnes, down from an already low 3.8 million tonnes last year. A sharp drop in EU-wide plantings is another explanation for the (small) crop besides the disappointing expected yield.”

The EU-27+UK rapeseed crop is forecast at 21.3 million tonnes by COCERAL, marginally up from the previous 21.2 million tonnes and slightly down from last year’s 21.4 million tonnes.

COCERAL said a return from the strong 2025 yields to average levels has been offset by a pronounced increase in rapeseed plantings from 6.4 million hectares to 6.8 million hectares. The damage from the heatwave was smaller than for other crops, such as wheat and corn.

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Arvin Donley is editor of World Grain. He has been at Sosland Publishing Company since 2005, covering the grain, milling and feed industries. He is a 1989 graduate of the William Allen White School of Journalism and Mass Communications at the University of Kansas.

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