KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI, US — Durum prices are regaining ground relative to hard red spring wheat as the northern Plains harvest winds down, narrowing an atypical discount that persisted through much of the summer.

A smaller US durum crop and tightening projected stocks point to reduced supplies, while producer storage and variable crop quality raise questions about how readily milling-quality durum will be available in the months ahead.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, estimated the 2026 durum crop at 66 million bushels, down 23% from 86 million bushels in 2025. Total 2026-27 durum supplies were projected at 145 million bushels, down 17 million bushels from 162 million bushels in 2025-26. The June 1, 2027, carryover of durum was forecast at 26 million bushels, unchanged from August but down from 33 million bushels this year.

Jim Peterson, administrator and executive director of the North Dakota Wheat Commission, said the USDA supply and demand estimates appeared mostly realistic but potentially optimistic on supplies.

“I think it’s pretty close, if not maybe even a little bit tighter,” Peterson said.

Peterson said domestic use could exceed the USDA’s projection after durum’s earlier discount to hard red spring wheat encouraged some users to switch back to durum. Exports also could strengthen if quality problems in Canada and European demand for higher-protein durum provided additional opportunities for US wheat. Imports, particularly from Canada, remained an important variable.

The atypical price relationship between hard red spring wheat and durum developed as their respective world supply situations diverged. World durum production prospects improved early in 2026, and large crops in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia reduced prospective import demand from a region that normally accounts for a major portion of world durum trade, Peterson said. Hard red spring wheat also received support from its ability to substitute for hard winter wheat in some milling grist.

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Reduced durum acreage in the United States and Canada was not enough to concern buyers early in the growing season because of carryover stocks and initially favorable crop prospects, Peterson said. As harvest advanced, the market began to account for a smaller US crop and late-season quality losses in the US and Canadian harvests, helping durum prices move back toward parity with hard red spring wheat.

Harvest was nearly complete in the two leading northern durum states. The USDA said durum harvest by Sept. 20 was 87% complete in North Dakota and 95% in Montana.

Crop quality increasingly was becoming an issue. US Wheat Associates (USW) said growing-season dryness followed by rain around harvest lowered the grade of some durum, while recent rain affected color and vitreous kernel levels in some samples.

With 63 of an expected 134 samples tested, the durum crop averaged 14.9% protein and graded No. 1 Hard Amber Durum, with a falling number of 400 seconds. Test weight averaged 60.3 pounds per bushel, down from 61.7 pounds in 2025, while 1,000-kernel weight was 35.9 grams against 42.9 grams a year earlier. Hard vitreous amber kernels averaged 78%, compared with 84% in 2025 and the five-year average of 86%.

“There definitely is variability,” Peterson said. “Quoting an average this year is going to be risky because of just the extremes either side of it.”

Some durum-growing areas had test weights of 56 to 58 pounds per bushel, Peterson said, while wheat in other areas had better test weights but lower vitreous kernel counts. Protein generally was good, while some wheat exposed to harvest rain had falling-number or sprout issues.

The variability could make the supply of durum meeting preferred milling specifications tighter than the overall production estimate indicated. Peterson said mills could make adjustments for some quality factors, including test weight, but historically placed greater importance on vitreous kernel content. The Choice Hard Amber Durum grade typically requires vitreous kernel levels in the mid-80% range or higher.

“I think that’s where the pinch point is going to be in both the US and Canadian crop,” Peterson said.

Availability also may depend on producers’ willingness to sell. Growers in North Dakota and Montana had adequate storage and little incentive during harvest to market durum at prices they considered unattractive. Producers growing both hard red spring wheat and durum may have been more inclined to sell the higher-priced spring wheat and store durum in anticipation of a better marketing opportunity, Peterson said.

“There really wasn’t a push on the market to try to stimulate producer sales at harvest time,” he said.

Canadian durum could provide an important source of supply for US millers if domestic premiums strengthen sufficiently. US mills have established channels for Canadian durum, Peterson said, although the extent of that competition will depend partly on how much Canadian wheat ultimately meets No. 1 and No. 2 grade and preferred milling specifications.

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Matt Noltemeyer, associate markets editor for Food Business News and Milling & Baking News, covers the wheat and flour markets. Noltemeyer was in writing and editing roles at five Colorado newspapers before joining Sosland Publishing Co. in 2017 and received a journalism degree from Colorado State University and a communications master’s degree from the University of Colorado-Colorado Springs.

Connect with Matt Noltemeyer on LinkedIn or via email.