The May 12th Primary is the first election since the state Republican Party decided in January 2024 to close its candidate selection process to only party members.  The move means non-affiliated or independent voters are not able to a receive a Republican ballot in early voting or at the polling place.

So, what will that mean for the election?

We will have to wait until after the election—maybe after several elections—to determine the impact, if any. But here are some notable, and somewhat surprising numbers about how voter registration has changed leading up to the Primary.

Republican Party leaders have encouraged independents to register as Republicans, and party officials maintain that is happening, but it’s worth taking a closer look at the numbers.

Republican registration continues to climb.  It has risen from 469,995, or 40 percent, in January 2024 when the decision was made, to 512,980, or 43 percent, as of March of this year, the month when the most recent figures are available. That’s an increase of nearly 43,000 voters.

So, where did those voters come from?

The number of independent voters has also increased over the past 27 months, 287,729 to 304,390. Absent a surge of voter registration changes in the last three weeks—registration for the May Primary closed Tuesday—it does not appear independents are flocking to the Republican Party.

(Total voter registration has increased slightly from 1,171,199 in January 2024 to 1,195,962.)

So, let’s look at the Democrats. Twenty-seven months ago, Democratic registration stood at 365,224, or 31 percent.  As of March of this year, it was 327,881, or 27 percent.  That’s a decline of  37,343 voters.  So, here’s one theory: The gain for Republicans has been in first time registrations and conservative Democrats who switched parties, but not independents.  That is a logical possibility since independents by nature do not want to be affiliated with either party.

A Republican consultant suggested to me that these are Democrats who switched because they are concerned about the most conservative social issues like young athletes who were born male participating in girls’ sports, vaccines and home schooling. These could be Democrats who haven’t taken the time to change registration previously and first time voters who are motivated to have their voices heard.

Cautionary note here: These numbers will change when the April registration figures are released.  It’s possible there will be more of a switch of independents.  We will wait to see.

Meanwhile, the larger issue here is the Republican Party registration continues to expand.  Fifty of the state’s 55 counties have more Republicans than Democrats.  The five remaining Democratic counties are Boone, Logan, McDowell, Mingo and Monongalia, and in Monongalia County Democrats are clinging to a 148 voter advantage.

However, an expanded Republican Party also means the emergence of factions.  That is evident in this year’s state Senate races, where different kinds of Republicans are in knuckle and claw fights over the votes. You’ve probably seen the flyers. At risk of over-defining who’s who, these represent more traditional business focused candidates versus candidates more motivated by social issues.

The intensity shows where the battleground really is. As West Virginia has moved back toward dominance by one party, many elected offices will be decided in the primary, just like years ago. Voters who want say-so will have ample motive to register with the dominant party.

But, ironically, if the closed elections result in slates of far-right candidates, that could eventually represent a path back for Democrats.