Donald Trump is beginning the final month of the midterm campaign on some of the most Republican turf in the country, spiking anxiety and befuddlement in Republican circles. The president has rallies scheduled in Durant, Oklahoma and Mobile, Alabama on October 1 and 2, according to the Republican National Committee. The two campaign stops are puzzling because the areas are Republican strongholds. Typically during campaign years, national candidates wishing to boost their party's chances campaign in swing districts where local nominees are in tight races. But with under 40 days until Election Day, the RNC and president have chosen to devote two critical campaign stops to districts that voted for Trump by at least 15 points. 'Reminiscent of the VP Cheney last-minute campaign trip to salvage a Wyoming House seat in 2006,' wrote Jewish Insider editor Josh Kraushaar. That year, despite Bush and Cheney's efforts to shore up the Grand Old Party's support in predominantly red areas, Republicans got shellacked at the polls, losing 37 seats in Congress – ceding control of the Capitol to Democrats.

The rallies come as the GOP's odds of controlling Congress are slipping and prediction markets show Democrats as favorites to win the House and Senate. And Republicans have begun ringing the alarm bells about districts that previously favored Republicans by double digits. 'Iowa House Republicans were informed by their own pollsters that if you are in a +15 district you’re within the margin for error, if you’re in a +10 district you’re underwater, and that this might end up being an even worse midterm environment than 2006,' posted Republican commentator Steve Deace this week on X.

The get-out-the-vote effort also comes amid historically low polling for Trump, with a recent Reuters/Ipsos survey showing Trump has just a 32 percent approval rating – his lowest ever. Voters are concerned with the Iran war, the economy, and the rising prices of gas, surveys show. Oklahoma's second congressional district, where Trump is headed next Thursday, is the fourth most Republican district in the country, according to the Cook Political Report. The political forecaster rates it as a R +28 district, meaning the GOP candidate there is expected to win with overwhelming support. Mobile is situated in Alabama's first congressional district. This seat voted nearly 80 percent for the last Republican, but this year Jerry Carl is only up 10 points over his Democratic challenger, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.

Longtime congressional reporter and founder of PunchBowl News Jake Sherman noted in a recent post that Carl is certain to win. The Alabama district is rated as Republican +17, according to the Cook Political Report, meaning the GOP has a strong chance of winning the race. But the stops could have benefits for the GOP not easily identified on the surface. Durant, Oklahoma, sits near the border with Texas and is only an hour and a half by car from the Dallas metro area.

Given the proximity, the two areas share a TV market, and Trump's rally will be broadcast on both sides of the border, making it a two-for-one of sorts, an RNC official told CNN. The hope among the RNC is that it will boost statewide officials in Oklahoma and Texas, where a tightly contested Senate race costing hundreds of millions of dollars threatens to imperil the GOP's longstanding control over the Lone Star State. As for the Alabama rally, Mobile also conveniently shares a TV market that extends into Florida's panhandle, where the GOP is also the dominant political force. Like with Texas, the RNC official expressed hope that the event could help statewide officials in Florida, like gubernatorial candidate and Trump ally Congressman Byron Donalds.

Still, there will be plenty of other rallies across the nation, presumably with some in battleground areas that will determine the balance of Congress. But as the calendar rapidly approaches November, Republicans may start to worry, and some are already turning their back on Trump. Florida Republican Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar released a blistering video in front of the White House condemning the president for his immigration policies. 'Some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far,' she said in a campaign ad meant to boost her own chances of staying in Washington, noting some Hispanic Trump supporters 'feel betrayed.'