Tennessee Promise, the first statewide tuition-free community college program in the country, significantly boosted college enrollment and degree attainment at minimal cost to the state, according to a recent working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Looking at 2000–2023 Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System and 2000–2024 American Community Survey data, the researchers found that after the statewide introduction of the Tennessee Promise program in 2015, college enrollment among traditional-age high school graduates grew by 5.4 percentage points. The effects were even greater for nonwhite and rural students, the paper notes.

Among community colleges, the advent of free tuition correlated with “a statistically significant” 15 percent increase in associate degrees conferred and a 24 percent increase in the number of students who transferred to bachelor’s degree programs, the researchers found.

The paper also addressed concerns among Promise program critics who argue that offering free community college diverts to two-year colleges students who might otherwise pursue a bachelor’s degree. Researchers found that Promise-eligible students in Tennessee were roughly 2.7 percentage points more likely than their peers to earn a bachelor's degree by the time they turned 24; women were 4.1 percentage points more likely.

The Tennessee Promise program, which covers the remaining difference between a student’s grant aid and their college’s tuition and mandatory fees, cost less than $1,000 per student per year, the NBER paper noted.

“Taken together, the results indicate that a simple, last-dollar tuition guarantee tied to community colleges can expand access and increase two-year degree completion without evidence of harm to four-year attainment, and with marginally significant evidence of gains in bachelor’s degree completion, even when implemented at scale,” the paper’s authors conclude.