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GROUND WARFARE 2030 – EFFECTS-BASED SWARMING IN THE NETWORK This article sheds light on operative doctrines of today’s armed forces and on their backgrounds. It seems that future battlefield is splintering more and more, i.e. manpower in the battle space decreases while military technology becomes more expensive. Therefore the battles won’t be fought in fontlines anymore but their effects will stretch everywhere, weapons will be used also by other troops than nation-states forces and civilian societies will tangle together in crises and wars outside national borders. Even so, it is estimated that in the near future the war will still be a violent act based on the use of military or unmilitary force of nation-states and/or armed coalitions or troops by means of conventional or uconventional warfare to reach the political aims. Three developmental trends can be identified at the tactical and operational levels of warfare. Firstly, there can be seen the aim to try to understand and systemise how the operative environment is functioning to change this functioning to reach political aims. This way of thinking is called Effects-based-Approach-to-Operations (EBAO). EBAO has faced quite a lot of resistance because of its mechanical and mathematical character. Amongst the opponents of EBAO war is still more or less chaos and according to them can not be systematised. The second trend is the idea to organise all resources needed in military actions in networks. This way of thinking is called Network Centric Warfare (NCW) in the United States and Network Enabled Defence (NED) in the United Kingdom. Also NCW and NED have met opposition, especially NCW because of its tendency to centralise decision-making. If institutional and operating concepts define the use of network, and specific technologies are defined as enabling concepts, then the concept of using resources in networks can be seen as a doctrine. The third trend is the aim to use smaller but smarter troops in the battlefield. Such tactics are called swarming tactics. A successful use of swarming is based on three pre-conditions: on elusiveness either through mobility or concealment, on long range firepower and standoff capability and on superior situational awareness having more information about the enemy than they have about you. Decentralised decision-making is also in central place in swarming tactics. EBAO and NCW have already been tested in war, too. Israel used their own application of EBAO, Systemic Operational Design (SOD) in their war against Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon in August 2006. Results were unflattering. Operative and tactical commanders didn’t anymore understand orders that they got from their superiors because these orders were often too conceptual to implement in practice. In addition, concentration of certain lines of activities like maintenance proved to be ineffective. Artikkeli on suomen kielellä ja luettavissa painetussa julkaisussa Tiede ja ase 65 (hinta 20 €). Julkaisun voi tilata Tiedekirjasta sähköpostitse tiedekirja@tsv.fi tai verkkokaupasta www.tiedekirja.fi
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