AI adoption on US corporate earnings is expected to become more visible in the coming quarters  | Photo Credit: Shutthiphong Chandaeng

The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption on US corporate earnings is expected to become more visible in the coming quarters as companies accelerate enterprise AI spending, although measurable productivity gains remain at an early stage, according to a Goldman Sachs report.

The brokerage's analysis of S&P 500 companies' Q2 2026 earnings showed that AI infrastructure firms are already benefiting significantly, while the broader corporate sector has yet to see a material earnings boost. S&P 500 earnings growth in Q2 2026 is tracking at 31 per cent year-on-year, excluding "other income" linked to certain private investment stakes. Earnings of hyperscalers and AI infrastructure companies benefiting from their capital expenditure rose 54 per cent year-on-year, accounting for around half of the S&P 500's earnings growth during the quarter. At the same time, earnings growth across the rest of the market remained strong, with S&P 500 earnings excluding energy rising 14 per cent year-on-year.

However, the direct earnings impact of AI adoption among US companies remains narrow. Goldman Sachs found that 11 per cent of S&P 500 companies quantified AI productivity gains for a specific use case, such as coding or customer support, while only 2 per cent quantified the impact of AI productivity on earnings. Companies that quantified such gains did not record a statistically significant difference in earnings growth compared with their peers.

Enterprise AI spending, however, is rising sharply. Monthly AI spending per employee at the median company increased to $12 in July from $5 at the start of the year. Among the top 10 per cent of companies by AI spending, expenditure rose to $650 per employee from $240.

AI inference expenses currently represent less than 0.5 per cent of S&P 500 revenues, indicating that the immediate cost burden remains relatively small. Around two-thirds of companies are funding AI spending by reallocating existing budgets, including software and labour budgets.Goldman Sachs said that as US companies move from experimentation to wider deployment, the productivity benefits of AI should become clearer in earnings. For now, investors continue to favour AI infrastructure companies, where the earnings impact of AI spending is more immediate and visible, while the longer-term beneficiaries of AI-driven productivity remain less certain.

Published on August 16, 2026