Why Did Air Conditioning Adoption Accelerate Faster Than Predicted? Evidence from Mexico

Дата публикации: 20-07-2026 00:00:00

A common theme in the vast literature on climate change is the estimation of models using historical data to make predictions many decades into the future. Although there is a large and growing number of these types of studies, researchers rarely return later to check the accuracy of their predictions. In this paper, we perform such an exercise. In Davis and Gertler (2015), we used household-level microdata from Mexico to predict future air conditioning adoption as a function of income and temperature. Revisiting these predictions with 12 years of additional data, we find that air conditioning in Mexico has accelerated, significantly exceeding our predictions. Neither errors in predicting income growth or rising temperatures, nor migration patterns, nor an overly restrictive model can explain the large prediction gap. Instead, our results point to the failure to account for falling electricity prices and technological changes in air conditioner efficiency as key drivers of...

Схожие новости

#	Наименование новости	Тональность	Информативность	Дата публикации
1	Do Tax Credits Increase Heat Pump Adoption?	0	8.78	01-08-2026
2	Surviving extreme heat increasingly boils down to this: access to air conditioning | Mark Wolfe	0	7	15-07-2026
3	„Widerstand gegen Klimaanlagen”: Deutschlands Kühl-Paradox	0	5	29-06-2026
4	The Earth is accumulating heat at an accelerating rate. Global warming reached 1.37°C in 2025	-5	8	10-07-2026
5	Experts urge caution as demand grows for AC in heatwave-hit U.K.	0	5	07-07-2026
6	Klimaanlagen: Energieberater zeigen, worauf es beim Hitzeschutz wirklich ankommt	0	5	11-07-2026
7	Study shows why comfort at home is more than a temperature issue	0	6	08-07-2026
8	空调服、冷藏舱：东亚极端天气催生“防暑神器”新经济	0	19.48	12-08-2026
9	La factura’ oculta del cambio climático: cada grado extra durante una ola de calor puede elevar hasta un 4% la demanda eléctrica	0	6	26-06-2026

Классификация: . Схожих патентов: 0. Схожих новостей: 9. Тональность: 0. Информативность: 7.88. Источник: escholarship.org.