Jared Hudson leads Barry Moore by 4 points in the GOP runoff for U.S. Senate, according to a new independent poll released today, one week before the Tuesday, June 16 election.

The survey, conducted June 5-7 by Montgomery-based Strategy Management, found Hudson at 42.15% and Moore at 37.46%, with 20.38% undecided. The poll sampled 1,300 likely Republican runoff voters and carries a margin of error of 2.7 points, a robust sample for a primary survey exclusive to the Yellowhammer State.

Strategy Management, an award-winning firm, says it conducted the survey independently and does not represent any candidate, committee or outside group in the race. The firm has built a track record of accurate statewide polling in recent cycles, including widely cited surveys in the 2024 election and multiple Alabama judicial and legislative races.

The poll lands amid a flurry of late movement in the race, from stolen valor allegations over Moore’s military record to Moore’s decision to skip the runoff debate to a competing survey released hours earlier showing Moore up nine.

The respondents are the voters most likely to decide the June 16 runoff. Nearly all of them — 99.77% — voted in the May 19 primary, and 93.38% say they are “very likely” to cast a runoff ballot.

Hudson’s lead is real, but the internals show a race that remains within reach for Moore.

Among self-identified Republicans, who make up the overwhelming share of any GOP runoff electorate, the two candidates are effectively tied. Moore leads that group 40.84% to 39.95%, a margin inside the poll’s error range.

Hudson leads every age group under 65, including by 35 points among voters 35 to 44. Moore leads voters 65 and older by nearly 7 points. That bloc made up 57% of the sample and historically dominates low-turnout summer runoffs, giving Moore a structural advantage if seniors turn out at their usual rate.

Geographically, Hudson’s strength is concentrated in the Birmingham media market, the largest in the state, where he leads by 21 points.

He also leads Huntsville by 4. Moore leads the rest of the map: Montgomery by 2, Mobile by 3 and his home Wiregrass region around Dothan by nearly 38, though that figure rests on a small sample.