With U.S. inflation easing for two consecutive months, older Americans and other Social Security recipients may see a smaller cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 than was forecast earlier this year, according to two new estimates published Wednesday.

The 2027 COLA is now projected at 3.6%, based on the July Consumer Price Index figures released on Wednesday, according to the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group for older Americans. A month ago, the group projected a 3.8% increase. 

Separately, AARP, an advocacy group for people over 50, said on Wednesday that it now projects a 3.5% COLA for 2027, down slightly from its earlier forecast of 3.6%. 

Despite the dip in the projected COLA, a benefit increase of 3.5% to 3.6% would represent the biggest annual adjustment in Social Security payments since 2023. 

Both AARP and the Senior Citizens League lowered their forecasts due to today's July CPI report, which showed the annualized pace of inflation cooled last month to 3.4%, from 3.5% in June.

The average retired worker received $2,071 a month in Social Security benefits as of January, according to the Social Security Administration. That means a 3.6% COLA would increase the average monthly benefit by about $75, raising it to roughly $2,146 a month at the start of 2027. 

That COLA forecast isn't set in stone, given that the Social Security Administration will announce the official 2027 adjustment on Oct. 14, after the September CPI report is released. The official annual cost-of-living bump will be based on the July inflation figures, as well as CPI data for August and September. 

The COLA is designed to keep Social Security benefits ahead of inflation, but because it is based on past price increases, seniors can feel as if they are losing ground financially. For instance, the 2026 COLA, which took effect in January, was set at 2.8%, although inflation has run hotter than that level since March. 

"Seniors don't experience inflation as a percentage on a chart," Senior Citizens League Executive Director Shannon Benton said in a statement. "Frankly, it's infuriating that seniors must wait for a COLA to catch up with prices that have already driven up their grocery bills, housing costs, healthcare expenses and insurance premiums."

Many seniors are frustrated with their Social Security cost-of-living adjustments, with 89% saying the 2026 2.8% hike left their benefits short of inflation, the Senior Citizens League found in a June survey.

Edited by Alain Sherter

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