HBM Boom Raises Commodity Memory Risks

Дата публикации: 14-08-2026 10:06:36

The memory semiconductor market is entering a new phase in which the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) boom driven by artificial intelligence (AI) demand and concerns over supply pressure in commodity DRAM and NAND are surfacing simultaneously.The shared view among brokerage analysts is that expanding AI

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The memory semiconductor market is entering a new phase in which the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) boom driven by artificial intelligence (AI) demand and concerns over supply pressure in commodity DRAM and NAND are surfacing simultaneously.

The shared view among brokerage analysts is that expanding AI infrastructure investment is rapidly shifting the center of memory demand toward HBM and server-grade products. Kiwoom Securities estimated that HBM demand in 2027 will reach 53.4 billion Gb, a 56% increase from the prior year. The supply growth rate for the same period is projected at 50%, suggesting that a demand-exceeding-supply dynamic will persist.

Production capacity itself is expanding rapidly. However, the industry notes that additional wafer input does not directly translate into a proportional increase in marketable HBM volume. Stacking yield, advanced packaging, and the pace of generational transitions are cited as the key variables that ultimately determine actual supply levels.

This differentiation is also reflected in export data. According to Hana Securities, the average daily memory semiconductor export value in July rose 287% year-on-year to $1.27 billion. DRAM exports increased 493%, while NAND exports rose 303%.

Month-on-month trends, however, varied by product. Overall memory export value declined approximately 8%, while DRAM rose 16% and NAND fell 32%. This suggests it would be difficult to characterize the strength in HBM and server memory as spreading uniformly across all memory product categories.

This divergence has produced differing interpretations of long-term supply agreements (LTAs). SK Securities and Hana Securities take the view that customers’ capacity reservations and advance payment structures can enhance demand visibility and reduce earnings volatility, noting that the arrangement allows memory makers and their customers to share a portion of investment risk.

At the same time, concerns have been raised that equipment investment tied to contracted volumes could, over time, drive expansion in commodity memory supply. Ultimately, analysts say, what matters more than the contracts themselves is the execution of capital spending and utilization rates.

The burden on commodity memory is also detectable in the cost structures of end-product manufacturers. Kiwoom Securities noted that the share of memory in the cost of smartphones and notebook PCs has risen well above historical averages. This implies that if passing memory price increases through to finished product prices becomes increasingly difficult, ordering patterns and inventory policies may be the first to shift.

The advancement of Chinese memory makers is another important variable. According to market research firm Counterpoint Research, Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC) recorded a 14% share of global NAND bit shipments in the second quarter of this year. Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) is also expanding its share of the global DRAM market, supported by improvements in DDR5 yield and increased shipments.

The industry, however, does not place this development on the same footing as HBM competitiveness. There is broad consensus that Korean manufacturers continue to hold a technological advantage in HBM across areas including advanced packaging, power efficiency, thermal management, and long-term reliability.

The more concrete concern is that Chinese manufacturers’ expansion in commodity memory could intensify price competition and pressure DRAM and NAND profitability. Analysts have also pointed out that technological gaps and market share shifts do not necessarily move at the same pace.

SK Securities recently analyzed that the memory market is displaying what it describes as a “dual market” pattern, divided between HBM and server memory on one side and PC and smartphone memory on the other. HBM and server memory are shaped by long-term contracts and supply constraints, while commodity memory responds more sensitively to spot prices and inventory fluctuations.

The key indicators for assessing the industry outlook going forward are relatively clear: HBM4 contract prices and shipment volumes, the spread between DDR5 spot and contract prices, DRAM and NAND inventory levels, smartphone and PC shipment figures, actual wafer input by Chinese manufacturers, and the pace of CAPEX execution by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

If HBM shipment growth continues and inventory is managed at stable levels, a longer and less volatile market cycle than seen in the past could unfold. Conversely, if a slowdown in consumer demand and a supply expansion originating from China occur simultaneously, concerns over a commodity memory peak-out could resurface.

Ultimately, the memory market today does not move as a single cycle. The differentiation between segments capable of converting AI demand into actual orders and stable cash flows, and commodity memory areas that remain highly sensitive to price and inventory changes, is emerging as the defining variable that will shape the next cycle for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.

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