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The worst inflation outbreak in 40 years: Distilling lessons from the COVID era

Дата публикации: 06-02-2026 12:00:00

During the recovery from COVID-19, inflation in the United States and many other countries surged to its highest level in more than 40 years, inflicting enormous pain on households and businesses, upending fundamental patterns of economic activity, and changing the course of politics and societies worldwide. To distill lessons from that era, the Peterson Institute for International Economics spearheaded a special project—codirected by Karen Dynan and David Wilcox—convening leading experts to examine different facets of the inflation surge, including supply-side disruptions, demand dynamics,…

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During the recovery from COVID-19, inflation in the United States and many other countries surged to its highest level in more than 40 years, inflicting enormous pain on households and businesses, upending fundamental patterns of economic activity, and changing the course of politics and societies worldwide. To distill lessons from that era, the Peterson Institute for International Economics spearheaded a special project—codirected by Karen Dynan and David Wilcox—convening leading experts to examine different facets of the inflation surge, including supply-side disruptions, demand dynamics, labor markets, fiscal and monetary policy interactions, and inflation measurement. Their published papers are brought together in this PIIE Briefing.

Contents

PIIE Policy Brief 26-3
1 The COVID era Inflation surge: Causes, consequences, and policy lessons
Karen Dynan and David Wilcox

PIIE Policy Brief 24-2
2 The inflation surge in Europe
Patrick Honohan

PIIE Working Paper 24-21
3 The trinity of COVID era inflation in G7 economies
Joseph E. Gagnon and Asher Rose

PIIE Working Paper 24-22
4 Fiscal policy and the pandemic-era surge in US inflation: Lessons for the future
Karen Dynan and Douglas Elmendorf

PIIE Policy Brief 24-10
5 Did supply chains deliver pandemic-era inflation?
Phil Levy

PIIE Working Paper 24-13
6 US monetary policy and the recent surge in inflation
David Reifschneider

PIIE Policy Brief 24-11
7 Was something structurally wrong at the FOMC?
Alan S. Blinder

PIIE Policy Brief 24-3
8 The influence of gasoline and food prices on consumer expectations and attitudes in the COVID era
Joanne Hsu

PIIE Working Paper 25-1
9 Why did inflation rise and fall so rapidly? Lessons from the Korean War
Joseph E. Gagnon and Asher Rose

PIIE Working Paper 25-7
10 The role of long histories of "lived experience" in the COVID era inflationary surge
Joseph E. Gagnon and Steven Kamin

PIIE Working Paper 25-3
11 Modernizing price measurement and evaluating recent critiques of the consumer price index
Daniel E. Sichel and Christopher Mackie

PIIE Working Paper 24-23
12 Labor market tightness and inflation before and after the COVID-19 pandemic
Justin Bloesch

PIIE Working Paper 25-5
13 US wage patterns during and after the pandemic: Insights from a novel data source
Jeff Nezaj, Nela Richardson, and Liv Wang

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