“Congress did not intend for derivatives exchanges to be regulated under a patchwork of state gaming laws,” CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said.

They didn't intend them to be basically gambling firms either...

I give the Federal Government less than 24 hours to complain

Considering Trump gets a taste from Kalshi, you can give them 24 minutes.

Pretty wild to regulate political prediction markets, nobody has any insider information on them, in the traditional sense of the term. The outcomes are all determined by hundreds to millions of independent people voting.

I guess you never heard of polls.

How meta will this become? Will Kalshi have a wager on whether or not Kalshi will win? Or, more ominously, what if they have a "wager" on the officials (judges) themselves? Is that legal, or is that considered a threat?

A wager offered would probably be in violation of the order by existing. Infinite hall effect?

It's like they have no idea how VPN's work.

It's like you have no idea:

“Kalshi must implement an IP address and residency-based geofence by August 19..." (emphasis mine)

Pretty wild to regulate political prediction markets, nobody has any insider information on them, in the traditional sense of the term. The outcomes are all determined by hundreds to millions of independent people voting.

If I know that candidate X is about to announce that they are withdrawing their candidature and I bet on that information, how exactly is that not insider information?

How meta will this become? Will Kalshi have a wager on whether or not Kalshi will win?

Kalshia is betting on a bailout, and the odds scale with the bribe.

I guess you never heard of polls.

Polls are not insider information. Public research has never been considered insider information.

If I know that candidate X is about to announce that they are withdrawing their candidature and I bet on that information, how exactly is that not insider information?

It highly depends how you know they are about to announce the withdraw.

The Trump administration shielding these insider trading machines using the CFTC is another giant middle finger to the rule of law and common sense in America. I think it's clear to the general public that these companies aren't advertising an esoteric financial market but a straight-forward gambling operation.

Gambling or market feels like one of those things that's best solved with a "walks like a duck talks like a duck" standard.

Futures contracts though it should be noted are basically entirely contracts for the delivery of goods. Oil futures are literally contracts on delivery of barrels of oil, and they have a delivery date! Same for all the agricultural ones. The contract matures when a truckload of something gets dropped off at your door, not with a cash payout.

Pretty wild to regulate political prediction markets, nobody has any insider information on them, in the traditional sense of the term. The outcomes are all determined by hundreds to millions of independent people voting.

True to form, you offer absurdities defending dumpster fires. So your claim that the Orange Mussolini's teleprompter operator could not have had any inside knowledge when he placed "futures" bets on speaches that his deranged boss would say? And he fairly won over $100K?
https://abcnews.com/US/white-house-teleprompter-operator-made-100k-betting-trumps/story?id=134764573

Gambling or market feels like one of those things that's best solved with a "walks like a duck talks like a duck" standard.

Futures contracts though it should be noted are basically entirely contracts for the delivery of goods. Oil futures are literally contracts on delivery of barrels of oil, and they have a delivery date! Same for all the agricultural ones. The contract matures when a truckload of something gets dropped off at your door, not with a cash payout.

Another one the bros like to drop is 'insurance is gambling'. Nope, for two reasons.

First - To take out an insurance policy, you require an insurable interest. It's pretty fucking obvious, actually, that this is necessary to avoid all sorts of shenanigans.

Take, for example, fire insurance over your house. Your neighbour can't insure against your house burning down for, well, obvious reasons. That creates a perverse incentive in the hands of your neighbour.

Second - "winning" an insurance "bet" does not mean you've "won" - it means you've suffered a loss (your house has burnt down) and your insurer pays out under the policy to try to restore you to the pre-event status (as far as monetary payment can possibly do so - and the limits of your policy).

These "prediction markets"? Free for all shitshow that are almost nothing but perverse incentives, fraudulent insider trading, etc... perfect for Trump & Co. I guess it explains why Don Jr has his hands in both major players. (And why the "regulator" is so keen to not only give these shitshows a pass, it actively goes to bat for them against the adults in the room trying to, you know, regulate them.)

It's like you have no idea:

“Kalshi must implement an IP address and residency-based geofence by August 19..." (emphasis mine)

Both are easy enough to spoof. It's a requirement that, even if it's implemented, does next to nothing to stop people from doing it anyway.

If states can ban pornhub.. they can ban kalshi.

Do you actually think those bans stopped people in those states from accessing pornhub?

Both are easy enough to spoof. It's a requirement that, even if it's implemented, does next to nothing to stop people from doing it anyway.

Of course, any sufficiently motivated individual can do almost anything.

But friction works. If you have to jump through enough hoops, the vast majority of people won't bother.

Of course, any sufficiently motivated individual can do almost anything.

But friction works. If you have to jump through enough hoops, the vast majority of people won't bother.

I do agree with you there. I just don't think this causes nearly as much friction as the judge hopes. IMO, little more than the state bans on porn sites that do pretty much nothing.

I do agree with you there. I just don't think this causes nearly as much friction as the judge hopes. IMO, little more than the state bans on porn sites that do pretty much nothing.

So, what does a state like Washington do, then? Nothing?

They're going after the Kalshis and Polymarkets... but the Feds are not only standing in their way, they're actively fighting them on that... completely mind blowing to me but, sadly, not surprising in the slightest for this malAdministration.

IMO, little more than the state bans on porn sites that do pretty much nothing.

You got some numbers on that “pretty much nothing”? Because I’m willing to place a bet on Kalshi that now far more people in Utah whack it to whatever is lying around the ol’ local drive rather than figure out a VPN to get them to a porn site.

So, what does a state like Washington do, then? Nothing?

They're going after the Kalshis and Polymarkets... but the Feds are not only standing in their way, they're actively fighting them on that... completely mind blowing to me but, sadly, not surprising in the slightest for this malAdministration.

I mean, the simplest solution I can think of that would create the most friction is mandate that they verify physical addresses using a mailer with an OTP. Hell, might be a good idea for social media sites too. Might help to cut down on fake accounts spreading bullshit.

You got some numbers on that “pretty much nothing”? Because I’m willing to place a bet on Kalshi that now far more people in Utah whack it to whatever is lying around the ol’ local drive rather than figure out a VPN to get them to a porn site.

Not readily available while I'm sitting at work, but I suspect you have about the same quantity and quality of data showing the bans being super effective.

I mean, the simplest solution I can think of that would create the most friction is mandate that they verify physical addresses using a mailer with an OTP. Hell, might be a good idea for social media sites too. Might help to cut down on fake accounts spreading bullshit.

That's just confirming residency - it's implementation detail on how you determine residency.

Except, even that doesn't confirm/prove anything - mail redirection exists - though I have seen envelopes from government services that state something like "Do not redirect" (I'm not sure what effect that actually has, and whether the postal service won't redirect such an envelope).

But even then - send it to your friend's house in another state and they post it to you, or open it and tell you the OTP...

See, there are workarounds for almost everything. The best you can usually do is introduce friction, which will deter most people - and if there is enough friction, it deters all but the most determined, which is usually good enough - especially for something like this where they're trying to get as many users as possible to be profitable etc.

So, what does a state like Washington do, then? Nothing?

They're going after the Kalshis and Polymarkets... but the Feds are not only standing in their way, they're actively fighting them on that... completely mind blowing to me but, sadly, not surprising in the slightest for this malAdministration.

Look who is on the board of Kalshi

…but I suspect you have about the same quantity and quality of data showing the bans being super effective.

And, just like in the rest of this thread, you would be wrong. It’s not the greatest source, but it’ll serve our purposes for now:
https://www.menonline.org/p/how-do-age-verification-laws-affect

Let me pick out a choice nugget: “Despite the presence of VPNs and noncompliant alternatives, age verification laws noticeably reduced porn viewing for our sample of devices.”