Israel and its American supporters suffered a political one-two punch last week. The first blow came from Democrats in the House of Representatives on Wednesday, when more than half of the party's members voted to terminate US military aid to Israel. 

The second, just hours later, came from Vice President JD Vance, with his remarks about Israel during a three-hour interview with mega podcaster Joe Rogan in Austin.

A few short years ago, neither event would have seemed remotely possible or even plausible. Yet together, they reconfirm a profound shift in American politics – that broad, durable bipartisan support for Israel is no longer durable and may no longer be bipartisan, except in opposition.

The House vote was symbolic. It failed overwhelmingly. But symbolism is the currency of politics, and this symbol was blazing bullion.

For decades, efforts to end American military aid to Israel have been relegated to the political fringe. Last week, 103 House Democrats voted for Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie's amendment to eliminate roughly $3.3 billion in military assistance. Only one Republican, Massie himself, joined them.

That is an extraordinary place for the Democratic Party to have arrived. As steadfast Israel supporter and New Jersey Democrat Josh Gottheimer put it, 'supporting the US-Israel relationship is quickly becoming a minority view among congressional Democrats… a shockingly seismic shift in a brief period of time.'

Some Democrats insisted their vote was not anti-Israel. Others made clear that the vote was specifically intended as a rebuke of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government's prosecution of the war in Gaza.

'I just don't see how the United States can support aid to a state that has committed genocide,' California Congressman Ro Khanna said. Illinois Representative Lauren Underwood was even blunter. 'The Israelis are out of control,' she said. 'Lebanon, Gaza. There's no reason for us to continue to make these investments at this time.'

Even members who remain strongly supportive of Israel felt compelled to send a message. Representative Adam Smith of Washington, one of Capitol Hill's most reliable pro-Israel Democrats, has sustained years of harassment over his position, including vandalism at his home, a fire set in his driveway, verbal attacks on his family and neighbors and the assault of a staff member.

Yet Smith, too, concluded that Netanyahu had ignored repeated warnings and that Washington needed to increase the pressure, and voted in favor of Massie's amendment.

Massie is clearly benefiting greatly from this moment. Prominent Democratic writer Amy Siskind wrote on X, 'What a politically astute move by Massie for bringing this anti-Israel vote up in the House, because he is a conservative Republican with blind ambition and 2028 aspirations, and he knows this issue will split the Democratic Party in half.'

Rahm Emanuel, who is currently back in private life but is openly considering a presidential campaign, has become perhaps the most prominent Democratic voice trying to preserve his party's traditional kinship with Israel, though he is doing so via tough love.

Speaking recently on Israeli television, he said that Israel's problem is no longer simply with outraged Democrats but with younger Americans generally. 

He also drew a bright line against what he called those who were 'celebrating on October 8,' a clear rebuke of the Democratic Socialists now winning congressional seats and others he believes have crossed from criticism of Israeli policy into something much darker.

That is not an accident. Emanuel understands that anyone hoping to win the Democratic nomination in 2028 will have to navigate one of the party's deepest and most jagged internal divisions. Move too far toward the activist left on Israel and you risk alienating moderates, Jewish voters and many older Democrats. Defend Netanyahu or the settlement policy too vigorously and you risk a revolt from younger progressives for whom Gaza has become a defining moral issue.

Then came JD Vance.

'I'm the reasonable moderate,' the vice president told Joe Rogan during their wide-ranging conversation, when he characterized his approach to policy in Israel.

That sentence alone would have startled Republican foreign policy veterans for its nuanced posturing, yet Vance proceeded to say that elements within the Israeli government had worked to undermine negotiations with Iran because they preferred a prolonged military campaign.

'Americans allow that influence to affect their judgment,' Vance complained of Jerusalem's alleged war-mongering. The vice president rejected accusations that he was swayed by Qatar or Tucker Carlson, insisting instead that he was simply trying to carry out President Trump's objectives of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon while avoiding another endless Middle Eastern war.

Those comments landed like a thunderclap among many of Israel's strongest supporters.

Conservative commentator Ben Shapiro accused Vance of unfairly echoing Democratic arguments that shift blame for the war toward Israel. Commentary editor Abe Greenwald warned that suggesting Israeli influence had distorted American decision-making ventured into the accusations of dual-loyalty that have long made pro-Israel Americans deeply uncomfortable.

The reaction itself illustrates the political trap surrounding the Israeli issue. Democrats who defend Israel increasingly face pressure from their own base. Republicans who question Israel's strategy risk are being accused of abandoning one of their party's closest allies.

The biggest winner from all this uncertainty may ultimately be whoever succeeds Benjamin Netanyahu. If Israelis choose a different prime minister this October, Washington, DC, it could get the political reset that leaders in both parties desperately need.

As Siskind wrote in her tweet on X after the Massie vote, 'I hope and pray that Bibi loses in the election later this year, because Lord help us if this is still an issue ahead of 2028…Mark my words, Those of you …who have made this your number one issue and litmus test, take note: you are going to take down our party with you, and our chances of winning back the White House in 2028.'

Until then, the old bipartisan consensus on Israel is not merely cracking.

It is breaking apart in full public view, from both the left and the right, and neither party can imagine what comes next.

Mark Halperin is the editor-in-chief and host of the interactive live video platform 2WAY and the host of the video podcast 'Next Up' on the Megyn Kelly Network.