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2. To say that Frederic is embattled is something of an understatement. It could not have been easy to get benched repeatedly last year after having signed such a long contract. Oilers fans were highly critical of him on social media, saying he was a flop. For much of the year I agreed with that assessment, but Frederic came on strong in the second half, giving me hope that there’s a player in him that can help the Oilers win a Cup.

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3. One of the fiercest critiques of Frederic came this summer when stat analyst Dom Luszczyszyn said Frederic had one of the ten worst contracts in the NHL. Luszczyszyn estimated that the Oilers will pay $22 million too much over seven years for Frederic, and that Frederic has got just a five per cent chance of providing value on the deal.

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“He’s now firmly in fourth-line territory,” Luszczyszyn said. “And not a quality fourth-liner either. Frederic had just seven points in 74 games last season and was a real drag at five-on-five. His contract now feels like a complete anchor where he’s being paid nearly $4 million to be basically replacement level. The question now is whether Frederic can return to form. He isn’t that far removed from third-line territory, which was part of the bet the Oilers made when they signed him. The hope was Frederic would return to that level when healthy; instead, Edmonton saw him drop further toward the abyss.”

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4. Frederic was indeed weak-to-awful in the 2025 playoffs, an injured player who should not have been in the line-up. Worse, he was no better better in the fall and early winter of the 2025-26 season.

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But after coach Kris Knoblauch benched him a few times and/or his ankle finally got better, Frederic was a good and useful forward in the second half of the 2026-26 season. He hit with more explosiveness. He made more plays on the attack. His defensive coverage picked up. Yes, he wasn’t good in the playoffs against Anaheim, but only three or four Oilers were good as the team disintegrated due to injury and a lack of unity and spirit.

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All this can be seen in Frederic’s plus-minus on Grade A shots at even strength, as tracked through video review every season since 2010-11 at the Cult of Hockey.

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In the first half of last season, Frederic tracked as the worst winger on the Oilers. He created little on the attack. He was slow on the forecheck. The play ended on his stick far too often. And he was a slow-moving sieve on defence.

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This is seen in his bad-to-atrocious Grade A shots plus-minus in the first half, +0.37 in the first ten game segment, a wretched -0.13 in the second segment, +0.14 in the third segment, then +0.34 in the fourth segment. Such low numbers for a winger indicate a player who no longer belongs in the NHL.

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But then Frederic got better in the next four segments: +1.92, +1.84, +1.82 and +2.01. That last segment, his best plus-minus of the year, came when he finally got some steady time on a line with Josh Samanski at centre and Colton Dach on the wing.

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If Frederic had played the whole year the way he played in the second half, no one would be complaining about him just now, even as he failed to score much then either. If he can keep up that momentum of solid two-way play, he’s a good bet to cover his contract for the next three or four years.

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Who knows? If he can find a way to pot 15 to 20 even strength goals this year and help out on the PK, maybe he’ll end up on the list of NHL’s best contacts in the summer of 2027.

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