June was a very eventful month in British politics. Andy Burnham won the most consequential UK parliamentary by-election for decades, in Makerfield, precipitating Keir Starmer’s announcement that he would step down as Prime Minister.

On the same day as the Makerfield by-election, the Conservatives won a by-election in Aberdeen South. This was the Tories first UK parliamentary by-election victory in Scotland since 1967.

These two by-election results triggered some commentary along the lines of ‘the death of two-party politics has been greatly exaggerated’, as the headline of Matthew Parris’s Spectator article put it.

For an indepth look at why that might not be the case, you can find an extended version of this article on our Substack

The average (mean) vote shares from the most recent June poll, by each of the nine polling companies who published a UK general election poll during June, is as follows:

* Compared with May’s average – Each month a different combination of pollsters will publish polls, so this change is not strictly comparing like with like, but gives a general sense of change

June’s polling average was compiled using data from the following pollsters – BMG; Deltapoll; Find Out Now; Good Growth Foundation; J.L. Partners; More In Common; Opinium; Survation; YouGov.

We will have to wait to see how polling data develops in the early weeks and months of an Andy Burnham premiership, which now looks all but inevitable. It is of course conceivable that Labour will continue to build on what has already been a small bounce in support since Starmer’s resignation announcement. It is also perfectly possible that Kemi Badenoch’s improved personal ratings will start to translate into improved vote intention polling for the Conservatives.

But with two challenger parties able to win significant support among ideologically defined sections of the population and with all parties having to compete across two highly salient attitudinal divides, it feels unlikely that we will see a return to traditional two-party politics any time soon.

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