Synopsis

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly highlighted that US monetary policy remains slightly restrictive, but the economic outlook is increasingly uncertain. The surge in AI-driven investment and a strong job market are creating complex dynamics. While inflation could persist, slowing growth is also a possibility. Daly stressed the need for careful evaluation of data before any interest rate adjustments.

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Thursday that U.S. monetary policy remains slightly restrictive, but the strength of artificial intelligence-driven investment and a resilient labor market have made the outlook for interest rates increasingly uncertain, according to Reuters.

Speaking at a Banco de España conference in Santander, Spain, Daly said policymakers are weighing multiple possible paths for the economy. She noted that inflation could prove more persistent than expected, requiring the Federal Reserve to maintain a tighter policy stance. At the same time, she said economic growth could weaken if investment slows or businesses fail to realize the expected productivity gains from AI, as per a report by Reuters.

Daly also pointed to the recent decline in oil prices following the Iran ceasefire as a positive development for consumers and the broader economy, easing some inflationary pressures.

Her remarks came shortly after U.S. Labor Department data showed that job growth slowed sharply in June. The weaker-than-expected employment report prompted financial markets to scale back expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase later this month, while also reducing the likelihood of a September hike.

According to Reuters, Daly recently attended a global central banking conference in Sintra, Portugal, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank's commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target, while also highlighting the transformative impact of artificial intelligence on the economy.

Daly said AI is creating significant uncertainty for policymakers. While the technology is currently boosting investment and demand, it could eventually improve productivity and expand supply, producing opposing effects on inflation.

Given these crosscurrents, Daly indicated that the Federal Reserve should avoid rushing into policy decisions and instead carefully evaluate incoming economic data before adjusting interest rates.

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